It is amazing how quickly things change on Wall Street. Everything suddenly turns from rosy to ugly in a matter of weeks. Both the Dow and S&P 500 lost more than 6% in May. At the time of this writing, the Dow lost more than 200 points for the day.
The market plunging shouldn�� surprise the readers who have been following our monthly market valuation comment. The market has been overvalued for a while. When it is overvalued, it may still go up. Just the risk is much higher and the possible returns will be much lower. The market plunging may hurt a lot of people. But it is good news for those who are prepared. It is hard to hold cash sometimes. But it is a discipline required for long-term successful investing.
It is a good thing to see the market going in the direction of more reasonable valuation. Though it is still not enough to be fair valued or give satisfactory future returns.
GuruFocus hosts three pages about market valuations. The first is the market valuation based on the ratio of total market cap over GDP; the second is the measurement of the U.S. market valuation based on the Shiller P/E. These pages are for the U.S. market. We have also created a new page for international markets. You can check it out here. All pages are updated at least daily. Monthly data is displayed for international markets.
Why is this important?
As pointed out by Warren Buffett, the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the U.S. GNP is ��robably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.��
Knowing the overall market valuation and the expected market returns will give investors a clearer head on where we stand for future market returns. When the overall market is expensive and positioned for poor returns, the overall market risk is high. It is important for investors to be aware of this and take consideration of this in their asset allocation and investing strategies.
Please keep in mind that the long-term valuations published! here do not predict short-term market movement. But they have done a good job predicting the long-term market returns and risks.
Howard Marks also pointed out that investors should always know where we are with the market. Predicting the direction of the market is hard. But investors can always make educated decisions based on current conditions.
Why did we develop these pages?
We developed these pages because of lessons we learned over years of value investing. From the market crashes in 2001 to 2002 and 2008 to 2009, we learned that value investors should also keep an eye on overall market valuation. Many times value investors tend to find cheaper stocks in any market. But a lot of times the stocks they found are just cheaper, instead of cheap. Keeping an eye on the overall market valuation will help us to focus on absolute value instead of relative value.
The indicators we develop focus on long term. They will provide a more objective view on the market.
Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP - Market Valuation and Implied Returns
The information about the market valuation and the implied return based on the ratio of the total market cap over GDP is updated daily. The total market cap as measured by Wilshire 5000 index is now 91% of the US GDP. The stock market will barely return 4.7% a year in the coming years. As a comparison, at the beginning of the year, the ratio of total market cap over GDP was 87.4%, it was likely to return 5.7% a year from that level of valuation. The first quarter gain of 12% has reduced the future gains by about 1.7% a year.
For details, please go to the daily updated page. In general, the returns of investing in an individual stock or in the entire stock market are determined by these three factors:
1. Business growth
If we look at a particular business, the value of the business is determined by how much money this business can make. The growth in the value of the business comes from the growth of the earnings ! of the bu! siness growth. This growth in the business value is reflected as the price appreciation of the company stock if the market recognizes the value, which it does, eventually.
If we look at the overall economy, the growth in the value of the entire stock market comes from the growth of corporate earnings. As we discussed above, over the long term, corporate earnings grow as fast as the economy itself.
2. Dividends
Dividends are an important portion of the investment return. Dividends come from the cash earnings of a business. Everything being equal, a higher dividend payout ratio, in principle, should result in a lower growth rate. Therefore, if a company pays out dividends while still growing earnings, the dividend is an additional return for the shareholders besides the appreciation of the business value.
3. Change in the market valuation
Although the value of a business does not change overnight, its stock price often does. The market valuation is usually measured by the well-known ratios such as P/E, P/S, P/B etc. These ratios can be applied to individual businesses, as well as the overall market. The ratio Warren Buffett uses for market valuation, TMC/GNP, is equivalent to the P/S ratio of the economy.
Putting all three factors together, the return of an investment can be estimated by the following formula:
Investment Return (%) = Dividend Yield (%)+ Business Growth (%)+ Change of Valuation (%)
From the contributions we can get the predicted return of the market.
The Predicted and the Actual Stock Market Returns
This model has done a decent job in predicting the future market returns. You can see the predicted return and the actual return in the chart below.
The prediction from this approach is never an exact number. The return can be as high as 10% a year or as long as -2% a year, depending where the future market valuation will be. In general, investors need to be cautious when the expected return is low.
Shiller! P/E - Market Valuation and Implied Returns
The GuruFocus Shiller P/E page indicates that the Shiller P/E: 20.5. Shiller P/E is 25% higher than the historical mean of 16.4. Implied future annual return: 3.5%. As a comparison, the regular trailing twelve month P/E is 15, slightly lower than the historical mean of 15.8. That is also why many media pundits are saying that the market is cheap.
The Shiller P/E chart is shown below:
Over the last decade, the Shiller P/E indicated that the best time to buy stocks was March 2009. However, the regular P/E was at its highest level ever. The Shiller P/E, similar to the ratio of the total market cap over GDP, has proven to be a better indication of market valuations.
Overall, the current market valuation is more expensive than the most part of the last 130 years. It is cheaper than most of the time over the last 15 years.
To understand more, please go to GuruFocus' Shiller P/E page.
John Hussman�� Peak P/E:
John Hussman uses the peak P/E ratio to smooth out the distortion of the corporate profits caused by the fluctuations of the profit margins. The current market return projected by his model is 4.4% a year. This agrees with the returns projected by the ratio of total market cap over GDP and Shiller P/E. This is the chart of the actual S&P 500 10-year annual total return and the projected return by John Hussman:
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In all the three approaches discussed above, the fluctuations of profit margin are eliminated by using GDP, the average of trailing 10-year inflation-adjusted earnings, and peak-P/E. Therefore they arrive at similar conclusions: The market is overvalued, and it is likely to return only 2-4% a year in the future years.
Jeremy Grantham�� 7-Year Projection:
Jeremy Grantham�� firm GMO publishes a monthly 7-year market forecast. The latest 7-year forecast published by GMO is below:
| Asset Class | Annual Real Return! |
| US Large Cap | -.2% |
| US Small Cap | -1.70% |
| US High Quality | 3.9% |
| International Large Cap | 4.6% |
| International Small Cap | 3.3=40% |
| Emerging Market | 5.2% |
| US Bonds | 0.9% |
| International Bonds | -1.80% |
| emerging Debt | 0.80% |
| Index Linked Bonds | -1.10% |
| Cash | 0.1% |
GMO expected US large cap real return is -.2%. This number agrees with what we find out with market/GDP ratio and Shiller P/E ratio. The US high quality will have higher return. The return is expected to be 4.4% a year.
Insider Trends
As indicated by the three different approaches discussed above, the best buying opportunities over the last five years appeared when the projected returns were at their highest level from October 2008 to April 2009, when investors could expect 10% a year from the U.S. market.
If average investors missed this opportunity, corporate insiders such as CEOs, CFOs and directors did not. As a whole they purchased their own company shares at more than double the normal rate from October 2008 to April 2009. Many of these purchases resulted in multi-bagger gains. This confirmed again the conclusions of earlier studies: The aggregated activities of insiders can serve a good indicator for locating the market bottoms. Insiders as a whole are smart investors of their own companies. They tend to sell more when the market is high, and buy more when the market is low.
As of May, we observed more insider buying activities. This is the current insider trend for S&P 500 companies:
The latest trends of insider buying are updated daily at GuruFocus' Insider Trend page. Data is updated hourly on this page. The insider trends of different sectors are also displayed in this page. The latest insider buying peak is at th! is page: ! September of 2011, when the market was at recent lows.
Conclusion: The market is not cheap, although it is about 8% cheaper than a month ago. It is positioned for about 3-5% of annual returns for the next decade. By watching the overall market valuations and the insider buying trends investors will have a better understanding of the risk and the opportunities. The best time to buy is when the market valuation is low, and insiders are enthusiastic about their own company's stocks.
Investment Strategies at Different Market Levels
The Shiller P/E and the ratio of total market cap over GDP can serve as good guidance for investors in deciding their investment strategies at different market valuations. Historical market returns prove that when the market is fair or overvalued, it pays to be defensive. Companies with high quality business and strong balance sheet will provide better returns in this environment. When the market is cheap, beaten down companies with strong balance sheets can provide outsized returns.
To summarize:
1. When the market is fair valued or overvalued, buy high-quality companies such as those in the Buffett-Munger Screener.
2. When the market is undervalued, buy low-risk beaten-down companies like those in the Ben Graham Net-Net Screener. Buy a basket of them and be diversified.
3. If market is way over valued, stay in cash. You may consider hedging or short.
Hot Undervalued Companies For 2014: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Mani]
Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) is one of the companies that are set to exploit the ongoing trend of consumers' increasing focus on value with significant opportunity to grow its store base, and expand margins.
- [By Ethan Roberts]
Shares of Dollar Tree (DLTR) were substantially lower this morning after the company reported third-quarter earnings. Dollar Tree earnings tallied 59 cents per diluted share of DLTR stock, which missed analyst estimates by two pennies.
Hot Undervalued Companies For 2014: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Jeremy Bowman]
Among the blue chips riding the jobs wave was Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) , which gained 3.2%. There was no major news driving the gains for the world's No. 1 maker of earthmoving equipment, but it's one of the few Dow components to have missed out on this year's rally, and shares look cheap for an industry leader that seems to be on its way to putting the doldrums of the last two years behind it. Caterpillar is a macroeconomically sensitive stock; therefore, a strong jobs report will only add more fuel to its bullish fire.
- [By Dan Carroll]
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) shares are down about 1.4% today, and like Alcoa, this is one stock that will take a hit from economic problems across the Pacific. Growing infrastructure construction once made Caterpillar's future in China look rosy, but with China's economic slowing and the country's credit crunch making lending a costly proposition, manufacturing has taken a blow. Caterpillar's not in so bad a position as Alcoa due to its retention of the top space in such a cyclical industry, but China's rash of problems will exacerbate the manufacturing sector's sluggishness and lengthen the time it takes for Caterpillar and its rivals to bounce back.
- [By Vanina Egea]
After hitting a historical high in 2011, prices for mining products entered a downtrend that continues throughout 2013, further pressuring margins and reducing demand for new equipment. Hence, prospects for Caterpillar (CAT), Komatsu (OTC: KMTUY) and Joy Global (JOY) have suffered. But, have managements taken the cue? And, how have hedge funds reacted?
- [By Jeremy Bowman]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) �traded mostly mixed today as investors reacted to an ambiguous earnings season thus far, finishing the day up 0.1%. Even then, it was the worst performer among the three major indexes. Stock downgrades weighed on the blue chips, while Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) shares jumped despite missing earnings estimates.
Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Ben Levisohn]
Shares of Herbalife have gained 0.9% to $79.51 this morning in pre-open trading. Its shares have gained 139% this year, a nice gain, but lagging Nu Skin Enterprises 271% rise. Avon Products�(AVP), another multi-level marketer, has gained 21% so far this year, while Tupperware Brands�(TUP) has risen 49%.
- [By Monica Gerson]
Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.03 per share on revenue of $623.34 million.
Varian Medical Systems (NYSE: VAR) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $1.12 per share on revenue of $779.02 million.
- [By Oliver Pursche]
European large-cap pharmaceuticals like Novartis (NVS) �and Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) �count amongst some of our favorite stocks right now, as do U.S. multinationals that are growing revenue and margins in Asia ��Tupperware (TUP) �is a shining example. Stay away from utilities and energy stocks, as they are likely to be the laggards over the next year.
Hot Undervalued Companies For 2014: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)
Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By David Smith]
Another angle
Without taking hindsight issue with that statement, I'm forced to compare it to the assessment of the same subject on the same day by Schlumberger's (NYSE: SLB ) CEO Paal Kibsgaard, who observed during his company's call that "... the main concern in North America land remains the pricing, where the downwards trend in drilling, wireline, and coiled tubing seen in the fourth quarter continued in Q1. In addition, we also saw further downward pricing pressure on a number of hydraulic fracturing bids during the quarter, adding further uncertainty to the North America land market outlook."�
- [By Tyler Crowe]
Even though the country has so much oil, it has struggled to keep up production growth and has asked for outside help. This week, Venezuela has signed financing deals with Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) , Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ) , and Russia's Rosneft that will total $5.6 to expand production. The country hopes to increase production from 3 to 5 million barrels per day by 2015.
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In an interview with DeCicco (left) and Dolly during the conference, both acknowledged that for executives at Pershing, it’s common practice to get experience in different divisions within the firm, which provides a strong base for taking on higher-level executive positions.
