Friday, November 21, 2014

This Homebuilder Will Deliver Strong Gains Due to An Improving Economy

D.R. Horton (DHI), the largest home builder by revenue, recently reported impressive numbers for the fourth quarter. The company results were good, but fell shy of meeting consensus estimates on the earnings. The management of the company is confident that the company will perform well in the coming quarters. It is seeing robust growth in the home orders. D.R. Horton also reported a solid improvement in the pre-tax profits.

Quarterly performance and beyond

Horton's quarterly revenue came in at $2.4 billion, up from the $1.8 billion which it posted in the same quarter last year. On the earnings front, Horton posted EPS of $0.45 per share, compared to $0.40 per share in the same quarter last year. But the earnings fell short of analysts estimates of $0.48 per share.

D.R. Horton is among the top home builders in the U.S. The strength of the company can be seen that when the overall home building sector was soft, the company generated a 20% growth, indicating that customers still trust Horton for its services.

But due to weaker than expected results, Horton saw a downfall. However, the company is now focusing on various initiatives to improve its profitability. It is strategically focusing on leveraging its competitive position to generate a double-digit growth in both revenue and pre-tax profits. This is also expected to improve its cash flows driving its growth to a better level and increasing the top line.

Growth-driving factors

On the other hand, Horton is seeing strong growth in profitability due to its branded communities which are responsible for majority of its sales in the last quarter. Horton is pleased with the progress and performance of its Express Homes and Emerald Homes brands. Its Eme

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Homes are getting harder to afford

Ben Bernanke can't refinance his home   Ben Bernanke can't refinance his home NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Affording a home is getting more difficult these days.

According to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI), nearly 62% of all homes sold nationwide last quarter could be afforded by a family earning the national median income. Two years ago -- when affordability peaked -- 78% of people could afford homes.

While mortgage rates are near record lows, home prices are on the rise -- and incomes aren't keeping up.

Of course, where you buy makes all the difference.

Short on cash? Steer clear of California, especially the Bay Area where tech money has sent home prices skyrocketing.

In San Francisco, the median home price is $875,000, making it the least affordable major U.S. city. Only 11.4% of homes sold in San Francisco during the third quarter were reasonably priced enough for the average family to buy, the index found.

Other major cities where home prices were out of reach included Los Angeles, Santa Ana, Calif., San Jose and New York.

Where home prices were most affordable was predominantly in cities that were hard hit during the recession.

In Youngstown, Ohio, for example, nearly 90% of all homes sold last quarter could be comfortably purchased by families earning the local median wage.

Syracuse, N.Y., Indianapolis, Ind., Harrisburg, Pa., and Dayton, Ohio, all recorded affordability rates of 84.9% or higher.

Despite the growing affordability gap, most buyers are still in a favorable position, said David Crowe, NAHB's chief economist. "Even with nationwide home prices reaching their highest level since the end of 2007, affordability still remains fairly high by historical standards," he said.

Rose Quint, a vice president for survey research with NAHB, said conditions should remain favorable through at least next year. She believes home prices growth should slow while an improving economy should help people find jobs and boost their incomes.

One headwind could be rising mortgage rates, which could climb in the next year or so, said Tom Wind, executive vice president of home lending for EverBank.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

3 Retail Trends We're Watching Closely

The retail space is rapidly evolving today, as bricks-and-mortar retailers such as Target (NYSE: TGT  ) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) attempt to compete with e-commerce giant Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) in an increasingly competitive market. From smaller store formats to same-day delivery methods, retailers of every variety are experimenting with new ways to drive sales. Today, some of our Motley Fool contributors will discuss three retail trends that are transforming the industry.

Rich Duprey: One of the biggest trends in retailing today is reducing the footprint of stores. Wal-Mart is arguably the best example of retailers shrinking the size of their physical locations, as it has experimented with formats ranging from as small as 15,000 square feet for its Walmart Express convenience store-style format to 40,000-square-foot Neighborhood Markets, more akin to your local supermarket than the typical 180,000-square-foot Supercenter.

Yet it's not alone, as Target has been similarly experimenting with small format stores, having opened an urban-oriented CityTarget concept that's about two-thirds the size of the typical 130,000-square-foot Target store, and a TargetExpress this past summer that clocks in at 20,000 square feet.

Even coffee slinger Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX  ) is getting into the act, recently announcing that it would test express-style stores that feature limited menus and (hopefully) speedier service. It said the smaller size addresses the increase in urbanization and decentralization of retail and builds on the success it's witnessed at its drive-through stores, which account for more than 40% of its domestic store count.

There's a growing emphasis on convenience in retail. From shipping options that include free pickup at stores to mobile ordering and payment apps that allow consumers to shop where they want, how they want, and whenever they want. Helping customers get in, find what they want, and be on their way is driving this smaller design trend. They say good things come in small packages, and not needing to hail a shuttle bus to get from one side of a supercenter to the other is definitely a big deal.

Joe Tenebruso: Whenever I study a retail investment, I ask myself one question: Is this business Amazon-proof? Increasingly, that answer has been "no." That's because the retail titan has built a wide moat around its core e-commerce business, and it continues to grow more impenetrable by the day.

That widening moat positions Amazon perfectly within the fast-growing global e-commerce industry. And it may be surprising for some investors to learn that even after two decades of turbocharged growth, online sales still comprise only about 6% of global retail sales. With millions more people gaining access to the Internet every year, I expect the growth of e-commerce to continue at a rapid pace for at least another decade, and probably much longer. But there is a war erupting in this highly competitive arena between two titans -- and to the winner will go incredible spoils.

After years of torrid growth, Amazon has become the first – and often last – place online shoppers go for an ever-increasing selection of products. So much so that search king Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL  ) now considers Amazon a bigger threat than even some of its more search-focused competitors. That's because the more people who go directly to Amazon.com to shop, the less they rely on Google's search engine to find what they're looking to purchase, and that's a direct assault on Google's most profitable and important business. Google is not standing idly by and has countered with product listing ads at the top of its search results that make it more convenient for shoppers to quickly find what they're searching for, in hopes that this will stem the tide of shoppers who jump directly into Amazon's waiting arms.

While the incredible growth of e-commerce will probably make it so both Amazon and Google continue to enjoy progressively increasing revenue and profits for the foreseeable future, should one of these rivals gain a strong advantage over the other, its shareholders could enjoy tremendous gains in the years ahead. As such, I will be watching this battle closely as it unfolds.

Tamara Walsh: Expedited shipping and in-store pickup is another retail trend worth watching. Amazon offers its Prime members the added convenience of free two-day shipping on an unlimited number of purchases for just $99 a year. The world's largest online retailer is also testing same-day delivery by licensed taxi drivers in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Amazon is even looking to aerial drones as a possible way to make speedy deliveries in the future, with what it calls Prime Air. The e-tailer claims delivery by drone would enable Amazon to deliver small packages within just 30 minutes. While same-day delivery via drone is exciting, it's something that will face federal oversight before becoming a reality.

In an Amazon-driven world, big-box retailers such as Target and Wal-Mart are entering the shipping wars with a convenience factor Amazon can't match: in-store pickup. That means online shoppers can make a purchase on Target or Wal-Mart's website and swing by the store to pick the item up the same day. This is a major hurdle for Amazon because it is only beginning to experiment with physical store locations.

Moreover, with the holidays around the corner, Target is using its massive store base (roughly 1,934 locations in the U.S. and Canada) to its benefit by offering free in-store pickup on tens of thousands of products available at Target.com. The discount retailer is further sweetening the deal by promising to fill as much as 80% of these orders within one hour.

Shipping and convenience are currently two of the biggest trends shaping the retail landscape today. Ultimately, for retailers to attract customers today, they need to offer a compelling delivery experience.

Top dividend stocks for the next decade
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Sunday, November 9, 2014

Urban Outfitters, Campbell, Valspar are stocks to watch

Bloomberg/file 2012 Enlarge Image Campbell Soup is forecast to post earnings of 39 cents a share.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch)—Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Monday's session are Urban Outfitters Inc., Campbell Soup Co., and Valspar Corp.

/quotes/zigman/55244/delayed/quotes/nls/urbn URBN 36.21, +0.85, +2.40% Urban Outfitters Inc.

Urban Outfitters (URBN)  is projected to report first-quarter earnings of 27 cents a share, according to a consensus survey by FactSet. "While the Urban Outfitters division has struggled recently, we continue to believe hope exists as the weather turns. Most notably, we believe the ample amount of compelling spring fashion should be able to release some pent-up demand for spring merchandise as the temperatures rise," Howard Tubin at RBC Capital Markets said in a report.

Campbell Soup (CPB)  is forecast to post third-quarter earnings of 59 cents a share. Analysts at Deutsche Bank on Thursday lowered the stock's price target to $41 from $42 due to a tough market environment and weakness in certain categories.

Valspar Corp. (VAL)  is expected to report earnings of $1.04 a share.

Friday, November 7, 2014

What Happened To The US Dollar After The End Of QE?

After the Federal Reserve announced the end of quantitative easing, forex trader Lydia Finkley said the U.S. dollar has been trying to stage a breakout.

“If you look on the indices it has … but if you against other currencies, particularly the pound, the euro, the [Australian dollar], it’s still staging a rally,” she said. “But it’s still being confined by key support levels, which is really interesting.”

Finkley is also the author of the forex blog FaithMightFX.com. She recently joined Benzinga’s #PreMarket Prep to talk about why this movement is making investors nervous.

Related Link: A Day In The Life Of A High-Frequency Trader

“You’re always kind of wary when the dollar, or any currency, can’t rally on good news,” Finkley explained.

The British pound sterling, on the other hand, did quite the opposite after the U.K. missed on its services PMI number, she said. The currency first broke down as expected, Finkley said, but then had a sharp rally back up to a key support level.

“So when things like that are happening -- you can’t break down on bad news and you’re not rallying on good news -- it tends to be a little wary in the market,” she said.

This reversal caught a lot of bears flat footed. Ouch $GBPUSD

— Lydia Idem Finkley (@faithmight) November 5, 2014

There are still traders who want to short the GBP/USD at these levels, and Finkley said she would still consider that a good trade. She doesn’t see any reason why the dollar wouldn’t rally further if the European Central Bank got a little bit more aggressive in its accommodative monetary policy.

Finkely also talked about commodities and this week's unemployment number. 

Check out her full interview here:

Don’t forget to tune in to Benzinga’s #PreMarket Prep Monday-Friday 8-9:45 a.m. ET for all of the premarket info, news and data needed to start the trading day.

Posted-In: Benzinga #PreMarket Prep british pound Lydia Idem Finkley Quantitative Easing US DollarForex Markets Interview

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Thursday, November 6, 2014

Metal Stocks Getting Washed Out

Related NEM Stocks Hitting 52-Week Lows Investors Rewarded With Treats, Not Tricks, As Dow And S&P Close At Record Highs M&A Activity Boosts U.S. Stock Futures (Fox Business)

The futures markets for gold and silver have been brutal for the metals bulls recently and have taken the stocks of the mining companies along for the ride down south.

A quick scan of the charts of some of the more familiar names in the metals arena does nothing to build the confidence of prospective buyers.

However, a technical look at gold futures hints that a short-term low may be made at or near current levels (1132 - 1140) soon. From there, technicians are calling for a fourth wave upside correction, very mild in nature, up to the 1185-1218 range in all likelihood. An "extreme" correction would take gold up to 1243-1245.

Any close below 1132, they note, would be a stop-out trigger on the long futures trade and would likely spell even more downside for the miners.

That being noted, here's a look at four mining stocks and the technical set-ups there.

Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE: NEM)
Newmont shares are trading just above some long-term horizontal line resistance at $17.97. That line of support goes all the way back to the 2001-2002 time frame, just to give some perspective of how bad things are for the miners. The stock could bounce up to the previous monthly support at $21.17 on a bounce in gold.

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX)
Barrick is trading right along with gold futures in terms of direction. As noted above, if gold bounces short-term, Barrick could rally from current levels around $11.41 to the $12-$13 range; $11.23 is closing support for Barrick Gold on a daily chart. Any close below that should trigger stop losses on speculative long positions.

The stock was last trading down 3.2 percent at $11.11 at time of publication.

Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY)
Yamana shares have been battered to sub-$5 levels over the last several months. Yamana may bounce from Wednesday morning's level near $3.66 up to $4.04 on the anticipated bounce in gold futures. However, when gold resumes its downside trading once again -- which may happen once the resistance laid out above is tested -- Yamana might plummet to $3.30.

The stock was last trading down 7.1 percent at $3.50.

Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS)
Pan American Silver has been trading as part of the short-metals trade for months now. It is in the same broken technical condition as the futures and the other metals stocks. However, they too are oversold and may be ready for a modest bounce in the very short-term. Support for PAAS comes in at $9.10 and the first two resistance levels on any bounce come in at $9.63 and $9.95. Buying near $9.10 offers traders an interesting risk/reward play for the very short-term.

The stock was last trading down 2.7 percent at $8.89.

A word of caution for all would-be metals bulls: don't overstay if and when the bounce occurs. Lower prices for the futures and for the mining stocks are still a likelihood by the looks of the charts.

Stock chart:  Stock chart

Posted-In: Long Ideas Short Ideas Futures Technicals Commodities Markets Movers Trading Ideas

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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