A few weeks ago, the New York Federal Reserve updated its "Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread" with data through February 2010, and the Fed's recession probability forecast through February 2011 (see top chart above). The NY Fed's model uses the spread between 10-year (3.69% in February) and 3-month Treasury rates (0.11% in February) to calculate the probability of a recession in the U.S. twelve months ahead (see details here).
The Fed's model (data here) shows that the recession probability peaked during the October 2007 to April 2008 period at around 35-40%, and has been declining since then in almost every month. For February 2010, the recession probability is only 0.57% (about 1/2 of 1%) and by a year from now in February 2011 the recession probability is only .054%, the lowest reading since April 1993.
According to the NY Fed Treasury Spread model, the recession ended sometime in middle of 2009, and the chances of a double-dip recession through early 2011 are essentially zero.
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