Goldman Sachs’s Greg Dunham today resumed coverage of enterprise software maker Tibco Software (TIBX) with a Neutral rating and a $32 price target, writing that he thinks the stock will be “held back by slowing license growth, as we are forecasting 10% in the back half of 2012 versus 15% in the first half and 25% in fiscal 2011.”
The way Dunham sees it, the stock’s multiple of 21 times the adjusted diluted EPS of $1.37 for the fiscal year ending in November of 2013 suggests to him that the stock is too rich given that Tibco has higher exposure to Europe and to financial services firms than some competitors. Consensus for next year is a penny higher, at $1.38.
Tibco is one of several software firms riding the wave of the “Big Data” movement this year, along with Informatic (INFA), Oracle (ORCL), and SAP AG (SAP). I talked briefly about that phenomenon in this weekend’s Barron’s print magazine.
Tibco stock today is down 27 cents, or 1%, at $28.02.
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