When stocks have had a good run, many firms suggest writing covered calls on the stocks to generate extra income. The theory on “overwriting” is that the stocks are worn out from long upside runs and are likely to trade sideways to down for a time. Overwriting is actually writing more contracts than stock that you actually own. Or in essence, it is a naked call position. It is a fairly aggressive tactic, but wise when stocks have had a huge run-up.
In a new research report, the equity and derivatives strategy team at UBS has a list of stocks for clients to overwrite. What we were more intrigued with, was their list of stocks that they specifically said NOT to overwrite. These stocks, which despite some missing fourth-quarter consensus estimates on earnings per share or revenues, have catalyst-driven scope for near-term outperformance. In other words, do not hedge these stocks, unless you want to get called away, because they will go higher.
Here are the five stocks UBS warns may go higher soon.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) makes the list, trading at just 9.9 times forward earnings. In addition, Citigroup is trading right in the middle of its 52-week price range and not at all-time highs. With a tremendous global business model, the bank is a solid holding for investors. Citigroup still just pays a tiny 0.1% dividend. The company also made our low P/E high-dividend leaders list recently. The consensus price target for the stock is $60.33. Shares closed Wednesday at $48.94.
CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME) exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, including futures and options. CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its Globex electronic trading platform and its trading facilities in New York and Chicago. The company also operates CME clearing, one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, which offers clearing and settlement services across asset classes for exchange-traded contracts and over-the-counter derivatives transactions. Investors are paid a solid 2.5% dividend. The consensus price target is $81.54. CME closed Wednesday at $75.71.
Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) is a top energy name that makes the UBS list. The company recently informed investors that it plans to divest assets in Angola and the North Sea, and to use the proceeds to accelerate the development of onshore liquids-rich resources in the United States. Houston-based Marathon Oil is a leading integrated oil and gas firm with extensive upstream operations. The company’s business is organized into three segments: North America Exploration and Production, International Exploration and Production, and Oil Sands Mining. Investors are paid a solid 2.3% dividend. The consensus price target is $42.11, and Marathon closed Wednesday at $33.29.
Royal Gold Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) is a contrarian play that makes the UBS list. The company is a precious metals royalty company engaged in the acquisition and management of precious metal royalties and similar interests. The company’s portfolio consists of 202 properties on six continents, including interests on 36 producing mines and 21 development stage projects. Investors are paid a 1.2% dividend. The consensus price target is $70.99. Royal Gold closed Wednesday at $68.50.
Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) is another somewhat contrarian play on the UBS list. The company is an independent refiner and marketer of refined petroleum products in the western United States. A major advantage for the company is the scale and diversification benefits afforded by its portfolio of seven refineries. More than a few Wall Street firms like Tesoro’s solid long-term competitive position on the supply-constrained California market. Shareholders are paid a 1.9% dividend. The consensus price target is $67.28. Tesoro closed Wednesday at $51.67.
The UBS stocks to not overwrite share some interesting traits. They all pay dividends, and they are all trading substantially below the Wall Street price consensus estimates. This makes the UBS thesis even stronger, especially considering the upside potential some of the stocks have to their targets. It also gives investors some good names to scale capital into now.
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