Thursday, July 5, 2012

Verizon Q1 Beats; Sub Growth Light, Wireline a Real Drag

Shares of�Verizon Communications�(VZ) are up 85 cents, or a little over 2%, at $38.51 after the company this morning reported Q1 revenue of $28.24 billion and EPS of 59 cents, slightly better than the consensus $28.17 billion and 58 cents.

The company said its wireless business saw a 7.7% rise in revenue, as the company added 734,000 retail customers on a net basis, including 501,000 “post-paid” subscribers, for a total of 93 million retail customers and 88 million post-paids. That, however, was less than some analysts had expected.

Average revenue per user, or ARPU, rose by 3.6%, year over year, for post-paid subscribers, at $55.43, Verizon said, while average data revenue rose 16%, to $23.80.

The company said it sold 3.2 million of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone�in the quarter, and 2.1 million smartphones with �long term evolution,� or LTE, connections. The iPhone figure was down 26% from the prior quarter’s 4.3 million activations, which may for some analysts add fuel to concern iPhone sales have been slowing.

Jennifer Fritzsche of Wells Fargo, who has an Overweight rating on the shares, writes following the morning’s conference call with management that the company expressed confidence it will improve its full-year wireline Ebitda margin, which was 22.6%, down 1 point from a year earlier:

Large part of revenue decline was due to product rationalizations and Enterprise was impacted by some restructuring. Wireline also impacted by benefit costs and escalators on certain content contracts. Verizon will look to raise video pricing and restructure bundles to make product tiers more profitable. Eliminated 1,100 positions since quarter�end, consolidating back offices, continues to pursue labor agreement. Confident will be able to achieve Wireline EBITDA margin improvement for full year.

Fritzsche also notes the iPhone sales figure of 3.2 million was higher than her own 3 million-unit estimate.

Craig Moffett with Bernstein Research, who has an Underperform rating on the shares, and a $32 price target, writes that while new subscriber additions missed expectations, “Verizon Wireless is inarguably the best U.S. Wireless operator,” noting that the 7.7% wireless revenue growth was “easily best in class (AT&T’s service revenue growth has likely dipped below 4%)” and that Verizon’s profit margin, “already the industry’s best, were a clear beat in Q1.”

But then there’s wireline:

Unfortunately, the Wireline business is… well, it’s the Wireline business. It is a drag on growth and a drag on value, and it still accounts for almost half of proportionate revenue and 70% of invested capital. Wireline missed on both revenues and margins. On a (proportionately) consolidated basis, the combination leaves Verizon growing at just 2.7%, less than GDP and less, even, than CPI. A year ago, growth was 3.6%. And if you strip out pass-throughs of iPhones and equipment, proportionately consolidated revenue growth is just 2.0%.

Nomura Equity Research’s Mike McCormack reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares, and a $37 price target, noting the 4-percentage-point widening of Verizon’s Ebitda margin to 46.3% in the quarter.

He doesn’t see the beat, however, shifting full-year estimates one way or another:

Ahead of this morning�s results, consensus anticipated 2012 EPS of $2.47, or 12% growth, with $0.57 attributed to 1Q. With 1Q results in hand, unless evidence emerges that D&A benefits will not sustain, estimates are unlikely to adjust meaningfully.

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