Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Mr. Market Trips Over Jobs Report: Bulls Left Hiding in the Cellar?

After a week of erratic but decently consolidative action, markets hit a real rough patch on Friday. With comments from Hungary implying the country was at risk of default setting up the market with a negative bias, the Nonfarm Payrolls Report pulled the rug out from under Mr. Market.

To give a quick recap, the headline number for May came in at 431,000 whereas expectations were for 500,000. Making matters worse, a full 411,000 of the jobs added for the month came in the form of temporary Census Bureau hirings, a sign that private sector hiring remains weak.

A deeper reading of the report shows pressure is very slowly building with hours worked per week, average hourly earnings and temp hiring all showing increases. At some point, it would seem, the employment picture must surely begin to improve. Some employers, however, are shifting part-time workers to full time rather than higher new workers. In other words, companies actually seem to be delaying new hiring as long as possible.

On the other hand, the Employment Index published by Monster.com continues to reflect increasing improvements in online job offerings. The chart is below:

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