Homebuilder Confidence Remains in the Dumps

Yields remain low with the 10-Year US Treasury yield between my annual pivot at 2.813 and my monthly risky level at 2.562. Gold trades to $1285.2 but closes below my weekly pivot at $1283.5. Crude oil prices rise but stays well below my annual pivot at $77.05. The euro stays between its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2895 and its 200-day at 1.3225. The Dow remains extremely overbought on its daily chart but my prediction is that the Dow will test its annual pivot at 11,235 by Election Day. Home Builder Confidence remains in the Dumps. The NBER makes a dumb “Recession Is Over” call. My call is that “The Great Credit Crunch” will last at least through 2012.

10-Year Note – (2.708) Annual, daily and annual value levels are 2.813, 2.803 and 2.999 with monthly, quarterly, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 2.562, 2.495, 2.487 and 2.249.

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – ($1279.3) Daily, monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are $1274.2, $1263.8, 1260.8, $1218.7, $1140.9 and $1115.2 with weekly risky level at $1283.5.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – ($74.61) Weekly and quarterly value levels are $72.72 and $56.63 with a monthly pivot at $74.45, and daily and annual pivots at $75.96 and $77.05, and semiannual risky level at $83.94.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – (1.3066) My weekly value level is 1.2902 with a daily risky level at 1.3184. Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1721 and 1.1424 with semiannual risky level at 1.4733. Note that MOJO is rising again on the daily chart.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (10,608) Weekly, annual, monthly and quarterly value levels are 10,445, 10,379, 10,164 and 7,812 with my semiannual pivot at 10,558, and daily and annual risky levels at 10,776 and 11,235. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th high of 11,258.01. The Dow has become extremely overbought.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Home Builder Confidence Remains In The Dumps - Builder confidence for newly built, single-family homes held unchanged in September at 13, which is extremely weak given that the NAHB Housing Market Index scales from zero to 100 where 50 is neutral. It seems like consumer uncertainty increased, and builders worry that potential home buyers are more insecure about the job market and the economy. Homebuilders are also being hurt by the glut of foreclosed property for sale. The index gauging traffic of prospective buyers edged down a single point, to 9.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research reports that the Recession ended in June 2009. What a bad joke on Main Street USA. We entered recession in December 2007 with unemployment at 4.6% and we end recession with unemployment at 9.5% and in June 2009 the economy lost 467,000 jobs. The NBER should be disbanded with this ludicrous call. Here we are 15 months later and the unemployment rate is 9.6% and to me “The Great Credit Crunch” that began in December 2007 is far from over.

Disclosure: No positions