LVS, MGM and Others Should Beat 4Q Expectations: Barclays

Gaming companies should report very robust results for the fourth quarter “driven by robust market growth in Vegas, a better-than-expected revenue environment in domestic regional markets (particularly in December), and continued solid performance in Macau,” argues Barclays analyst Felicia Hendrix.

Hendrix expects Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM International Resorts (MGM) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) to beat consensus expectations and for Penn National Gaming (PENN) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to report results in line with expectations. That said, “LVS and BYD are priced for perfection into the quarter.”

Most casino stocks were lower in midday trading, with WYNN taking the hardest hit.

Why Wait? Start Shedding Fat With These Pointers Today!

Weight reduction may well be a superb life change in your life. It does require a lot of dedication to work through. This can actually make you wonder where to begin to start losing the excess weight. Don’t be concerned, everything you need to know about where to start with losing weight is included in the tips below.

Before giving in and eating a snack when you are hungry, try drinking a cup of water to watch if the hunger disappears. One of the most common mistakes people make when hoping to lose weight is confusing thirst for hunger. The truth is, often times when you experience hunger; your body is really seeking to signal that it must be thirsty instead.

Make realistic goals to avoid setting yourself up for failure. One of the things which can sabotage a diet plan is the thought that you are likely to lose all the weight in a short amount of time. It probably took quite some time to put on the weight, and it’s going to take time for you to work it off. When people don’t situate a goal, they have an inclination to stop and go back to old ways. By setting an achievable goal, you’ll become encouraged for the long haul.

In order to drop pounds, you should be active for at least a half-hour every day. This is an excellent start for those who are inactive. The exercise does not need to be strenuous, just enough to let you get up and moving. You will feel great, digest your food better and have more energy.

Try three bean salad when you are working at shedding pounds. You may make a low-calorie version quickly and easily in your home. Just open three cans of varied different beans and mix all of them with some light Italian dressing. This will make an adequate amount of this high fiber snack that you can munch on all week.

Maintaining a weight loss journal can be an effective tool for shedding some of your unwanted pounds. Record your weight inside the journal on a weekly basis to track your progress. Seeing your progress using this approach may be a great source of motivation. On the other hand, your journal will also provide you with a warning when you’re not keeping up with your ideal weight loss goals so that you could adjust your strategy when needed.

While often overlooked, walking is one of the ultimate activities to begin when you’re seeking to shed some pounds. The steady pace allows for calories to gradually burn away and increase your metabolic rate. In the process, it’s also strengthening your bones and joints from the added pressure and energy consumption.

So, while you have seen, it is true that weight-loss requires research, work, and effort to start seeing the pounds come off. It is also true that in order to see results that you have to keep with it. Keeping the aforementioned tips in mind you really are on the right path to being successful with it.

Want to find out more about weight loss, then visit this site on how to choose the fastest way to lose weight for your needs.

Top Stocks For 2012-1-31-13

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO)

Burning biomass is not the only way to release its energy. Biomass can be converted to other usable forms of energy like methane gas or transportation fuels like ethanol and biodiesel. Methane gas is the main ingredient of natural gas. Smelly stuff, like rotting garbage, and agricultural and human waste, release methane gas - also called “landfill gas” or “biogas.” Crops like corn and sugar cane can be fermented to produce the transportation fuel, ethanol. Biodiesel, another transportation fuel, can be produced from left-over food products like vegetable oils and animal fats. Biomass fuels provide about 3 percent of the energy used in the United States.

Cleantech Transit Inc. was founded to capitalize on technology advances and manufacturing opportunities in the growing clean energy public transportation sector. The Company has expanded its focus to invest directly in specific green projects. Recognizing the many economic and operational advances of converting wood waste into renewable sources of energy, Cleantech has selected to invest in Phoenix Energy (www.phoenixenergy.net). This project could benefit the Company’s manufacturing clients worldwide.

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO) is pleased to announce it has met its funding requirement to secure the Company’s ability to earn in 25% of the 500KW Merced Project.

The Company is in the final stages of closing its initial interest in the Merced Project and is currently working on completing the necessary documentation and expects closing the transaction soon. As previously announced Cleantech has the option to earn up to 40% of the Merced Project and the Company plans to continue to work towards increasing its interest in the Merced Project as they move ahead.

For more information about Cleantech Transit, Inc. visit its website www.cleantechtransitinc.com

Dril-Quip, Inc. (NYSE:DRQ) announced that Blake T. DeBerry, Senior Vice President-Sales and Engineering, and Jerry M. Brooks, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will deliver a presentation at the Barclays Capital 2011 CEO Energy-Power Conference in New York City on Tuesday, September 6, 2011. Their remarks are scheduled to begin at 3:45 p.m. Eastern / 2:45 p.m. Central time.

Dril-Quip, Inc. designs, manufactures, fabricates, inspects, assembles, tests, and markets engineered offshore drilling and production equipment for use in deepwater, harsh environment, and severe service applications worldwide.

Eaton Corporation (NYSE:ETN) announced that it has acquired the assets of IE Power, Inc. IE Power, which was founded in 1985, is based in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada and employs 24 people. The company is a leading provider of high power inverters for a variety of mission critical applications including solar, wind and battery energy storage, with sizes from 100kW to 5MW. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Eaton Corporation operates as a power management company worldwide. It provides electrical components and systems for power quality, distribution, and control; hydraulics components, systems, and services for industrial and mobile equipment; aerospace fuel, hydraulics, and pneumatic systems for commercial and military use; and truck and automotive drivetrain, and powertrain systems for performance, fuel economy, and safety.

Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE:RLH) has named Julie Shiflett as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective September 1. Shiflett has been with Red Lion Hotels since October 2010 when she was hired under a contract to serve as Vice President of Finance.

Red Lion Hotels Corporation, a hospitality and leisure company, engages in the ownership, operation, and franchising of midscale, full, select, and limited service hotels under the Red Lion brand.

EU leaders back fiscal pact, bigger firewall

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- European Union leaders agreed Monday to strengthen a financial firewall and most members of the 27-nation group will sign a new fiscal compact. But the first summit of the year ended without new solutions for the debt crisis in Greece.

The leaders of all but two members the 27-nation EU agreed to sign a pact designed to prevent governments from running excessive deficits and racking up unsustainable debts.

For now, the Czech Republic could not sign up, while Britain already rejected the treaty, which was first announced in October.

The leaders also agreed to implement the European Stability Mechanism, a permanent rescue fund, in July. The €500 billion ESM was originally set to enter into force next year, when a temporary bailout fund expires.

"The early entry into force of this permanent firewall will prevent contagion in the euro area and further restore confidence," said European Council president Herman Van Rompuy.

But the leaders did not propose any new measures aimed at resolving the situation in Greece, the nation at the center of the debt crisis in Europe.

Van Rompuy welcomed the progress that has been made in talks between Greece and its private sector creditors, saying a deal could be reached in the coming days.

He also called for a quick agreement on the terms of a second bailout for Greece, which is being negotiated with the EU, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank.

Greek anxiety drags down world markets

Greece and its private sector creditors have yet to agree on a plan to write down the nation's debt by 50% as part of a debt exchange. Athens needs to seal the deal soon to secure additional bailout funds and avoid an all-but-certain default on bonds due in March.

At the same time, there are signs Greece may need more bailout money than previously expected. EU leaders agreed in October to provide a second €130 rescue program for Greece, but analysts say the nation may need up to €145 billion given its deteriorating economy.

Germany, the richest eurozone economy, remains cool to backing additional support for Greece. The German Finance Ministry has proposed giving EU authorities veto power over Greek budget policies as a condition of more bailout money, which Athens rejected as an infringement of national sovereignty.

Can 'Super Mario' save Europe and America?

Still, borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have come down over the last few weeks and both nations have been able to successfully sell short-term bonds. The improvement in Italian and Spanish bond markets coincided with aggressive moves by the European Central bank, which poured nearly €500 billion into the banking system in December.

EU leaders have been hoping to move beyond the crisis talks that dominated last year's summits to focus on larger economic and political challenges. But ongoing concerns about a default by Greece and renewed worries about Portugal this year have served as a potent reminder that the crisis is far from resolved.

"We need discipline but we also need growth," said Jose Barroso, president of the European Commission. "We have a strategy and we are staying the course."

The leaders also outlined a series of relatively modest measures aimed at reviving economic growth, including steps to boost youth employment and help small businesses grow.  

Target (TGT) to Sell Facebook Gift Cards

Facebook IPO rumors continue to rumble. But with the announcement by Target (NYSE: TGT) that it will begin selling Facebook Credits in gift-card form to shoppers starting Sept. 5, it appears that Facebook is looking hard at unique ways to increase its cash flow and profitability. That�s probably in part due to Facebook IPO hopes and a desire for new revenue streams.

The gift cards � in $15, $25 and $50 buys � go toward credit in Facebook�s wildly popular online games, including Zynga�s FarmVille and MafiaWars, among others. The games such as FarmVille, which allow users to buy imaginary land, grow imaginary crops and purchase imaginary stuff � are free to a point. They get users hooked and generate revenue through the sale of so-called virtual goods to keep your �farm� running.

Because of the immensely successful online games, these credits could be a huge source of Facebook�s revenues this year � perhaps as much as a third, according to insiders.

While the company itself has never disclosed its revenue breakdowns, in 2009 a board member told a media outlet the site would reap more than $500 million that year. And this year, its brand advertising revenues may be more than $1 billion, according to company estimates. Adding Target�s FaceBook Credits could bring in hundreds of millions more. Still, it needs to keep growing in profitability to avoid becoming just another fad.

The company announced last year that it was cash-flow positive. That doesn�t mean it�s turning a strong profit, it just means the cash it generates from ad sales and other forms of revenue (yes, FarmVille) now exceed the cost of servers and other expenditures.

And profits could come in some of their newly launched ideas. The �check-in� feature Facebook Places �modeled after the popular social site Foursquare � allows users to check themselves (and their friends) into different geographical locations, including restaurants. Coupon-related links could also help drive revenue on a hyper-local level.

The company isn�t stopping there. Some 100 million users hit third-party sites using their Facebook IDs through Facebook Connect. This gives the company ample leverage to sell ads for those third-party sites, or to sell data to those -parties sites, so that more targeted� ads begin appear on your Facebook page. Scary? Maybe. But for advertisers, worth every extra penny it�s being charged.

The company is also said to be exploring online pay on e-commerce sites. The rational being that if your credit card information is already connected to the site, a Facebook-related pay system could be a bonus for time-strapped consumers.

The company�s focus on user growth has wildly exceeded any social networking site�s dreams, with a business model that relies on the �more people, more profit� line of thinking.� It�s also benefited from the slow demise of sites such as MySpace and Friendster. It�s online social games are even now being copied by companies seeking to tap into this burgeoning market. The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) acquired game start-up company Playdom Inc. for $563.2 million in July, and Google (NYSE: GOOG) is also looking to move into social games (a good idea for a company that has flat-lined somewhat in upward earning, though still not too shabby at $25 billion plus in revenues this year).

And if its growing base of users is any indication, more will flock to its offerings � advertisers included. Of course, 500 million �friends� is great. But not if you can�t make enough money off of them.

As of this writing, Burke Speaker did not own a position in any of the stocks named here.

Double-Digit Profits No Matter What the Market Does. You are not at the mercy of the markets. You can start adding double-digit winners to your portfolio now if you’re ready to embrace the new rules of investing. Here’s how to make money every day in up markets AND down.

SM: Estimated Tax Payments - Will You Owe?

For most of us, tax day comes just once a year on or around April 15. But for people who owe estimated taxes, Uncle Sam expects a check four times a year. Unfortunately, one of those poor quarterly taxpayers may be you if any of the following applies to your situation.

• You cashed in some serious stock market winners this year but haven't changed your withholding.
• You or your spouse became self-employed and now owe income and self-employment taxes for your efforts.
• You finally decided to hire a nanny and pay her federal payroll tax. You can do this in quarterly payments or in one lump sum when you file your taxes in April. (But you may owe interest if you wait until April.) For more details, see our story "The Nanny Tax."
• You have income from other sources that you forgot to consider (or had no way of knowing about) when you filled out your W-4 for 2012.

More Tax Links

• Find Your Marginal Tax Rate
• Find Your Average Tax Rate
• Will You Owe Estate Taxes?

Now that I've gotten thousands of you scared, let me tell you who should not worry about estimated taxes even if one of the above holds true. Anyone who expects his 2012 tax bill net of salary withholding to be under $1,000. Any U.S. citizen or resident whose tax bill for 2011 was zero. You are exempt.

As for the rest of you, please keep reading. I've tried to be brief, but the rules are complex. So anyone wanting more information should download IRS Publication 505 from the IRS Web site.

The Fundamentals Estimated tax payments for the 2012 tax year are due on April 17, June 15, Sept. 17 of 2011 and Jan. 15 of 2012. If you underpay one or more installments, you get charged interest until the day you catch up. However, the government charges a very reasonable rate: only 3% at the time this was written, subject to change each quarter. (So if you want to pay off your 18% credit card balance instead, go ahead.) Any payments outstanding after April 15 next year are subject to a 0.5% per month "failure to pay" penalty on top of the interest. All payments should be accompanied by Form 1040-ES, which you can also download from the IRS Web site. It takes just a few seconds to fill out (honest).

So How Much Do I Owe? If you want to completely avoid any interest charges, you must cough up enough to satisfy any one of four "safe-harbor" guidelines. Remember to include any withholding when calculating your payments.

• The first safe harbor is only for folks with 2011 adjusted gross income of $150,000 or less. You will be safe for 2012 if you pay in at least the tax liability number shown on last year's return (the amount on line 61 of Form 1040 reduced by any tax credits).
• If your 2011 adjusted gross income was over $150,000, you are covered if you pay in at least 110% of last year's tax liability.

Regardless of your income level last year, you are cool with the feds if you pay in at least 90% of whatever this year's tax bill turns out to be. Obviously, this requires some guesswork on your part. Hence the term "estimated taxes."

Finally, if this year's income starts off low and ends up high (say because you have huge fourth-quarter capital gains), you should probably use the "annualized method." This is an exception to the general rule that your four estimated tax payments should be equal. Under the annualized method, estimated payments correspond to your cash flow, so you won't owe big installments on the earlier due dates before you have the money to pay them. Unfortunately, the calculations are fairly difficult. (See the instructions to Form 2210, Underpayment of Estimated Tax by Individuals, Estates and Trusts.)

You are free to use whichever of the above safe harbors does the best job of minimizing or deferring your estimated tax payments. However, if you don't successfully pull into one of the safe harbors, you'll be charged interest on the payment shortfalls. You can calculate the interest yourself when you file your 2012 return (using Form 2210) or let the IRS do the math and bill you.

Example: You figure you'll owe the government $20,000 for this year (2012), but only $12,000 will be withheld from your salary. Obviously, you'll be underpaid to the tune of $8,000. But there's no need to make any estimated payments if your 2011 tax bill was $12,000 or less (assuming 2011 adjusted gross income was $150,000 or less). The first safe harbor listed above gets you off the hook. But if last year's tax bill was $15,000, you'll need to make $3,000 in estimated payments ($750 each) to reserve your safe-harbor berth.

What If I Miss a Payment? You won't be the only one. You have several alternatives to avoid or at least minimize the interest-charge hit.

Say you extended your 2011 return and will be getting a $2,000 refund. After reading this, you are surprised to find out you owe $3,000 in estimated payments for 2012 ($750 for each quarter). Here's the easy solution: When you file your 2011 return, tell the IRS you only want $500 back (by entering that amount on line 73 of your 1040). You can use the other $1,500 to cover your April and June estimated payments (enter $1,500 on line 75 of your 2011 return). Then stay on track by making the last two payments by the Sept. 17, 2012, and Jan. 15, 2013, deadlines.

You can also reduce or eliminate the interest-charge hit from missed estimated tax payments by increasing your salary withholding. Do this by filing a new Form W-4 with your employer. For example, say you owe a total of $3,000 in estimated payments. If you can jack up your withholding between now and year's end by that amount, your estimated tax obligations vaporize.

Finally, you can stop the interest-charge bleeding simply by making oversized estimated payments to compensate for earlier underpayments. Say you missed the $750 payment due on April 17. If you pay in $1,500 on June 15, you're all caught up. Of course, you'll be charged two months' interest on the $750 shortfall, but the interest is only a few bucks.

So you see, even if the estimated-tax rules apply to you, there are easy ways to lessen the pain.

Central Banks Shifting To Gold

There has been much talk about central banks becoming net buyers of gold since the start of the economic crisis in 2008. I want to elaborate on that.

The world gold council (WGC) yearly reports on the amount of central bank gold sales. As of 2010, central banks have shifted from net sellers to net buyers of gold (Figure 1). And this has only happened recently! As we look at history, during the inflationary years of 1980, central banks were buying gold. Then a period of gold selling occurred from 1989 till 2009. Central banks only shifted to buying gold since 2010. Which means we are going right into a bull market of gold.

Figure 1

The WGC expected growth in gold buying from central banks to continue throughout 2012. The projected growth of central bank gold buying was projected to be 336 tonnes of gold per year in 2011 (Figure 2). Their predictions were right as central banks added 450 tonnes during 2011.

Figure 2

Figure 3

By far, the increase in interest in gold is the highest within the sector of central banks as opposed to investment, bars, coins and ETFs (Figure 3).

Figure 4

The top among those countries that increased their gold holdings in 2011 are: Mexico, Russia, Thailand, Bolivia, Korea (Figure 4).

Conclusion: Central banks know there is something going wrong with our fiat currency system. Otherwise they wouldn't shift to buying gold, which started coincidentally after 2008: the year of the global financial crisis where money supply exploded. I suggest that we investors follow the big guys into buying gold, you don't want to be left behind.

Disclosure: I am long PHYS, PSLV.

Under Armour Remains Significantly Overvalued

Under Armour (UA) posted fiscal fourth-quarter results Thursday that weren't as impressive as previous quarters. Though revenue grew 34% from the same period a year ago, the growth rate represents a modest slowdown from the previous quarter's pace of 41.7% and the 35.7% rate recorded in the fiscal fourth quarter of last year.

Under Armour cited the unseasonably warm weather as the main culprit in the slowing growth, and while we wouldn't exactly call this revenue expansion subpar, several of our concerns regarding the firm are starting to come to fruition. For one, gross margins continue to fall. Granted, the 10-basis-point decline isn't substantial, but profit margins aren't growing, and we don't expect them to expand anytime soon. Earnings per share, however, still advanced an impressive 40%, as a result of the increased sales and leveraging of SG&A.

Second, we think management is overestimating its opportunity in the footwear space. CEO Kevin Plank cited strength in its marketing campaigns, but failed to elaborate on their effectiveness. In fact, we've found UA basketball shoes on-sale for as little as $15 at retail outlets, which pales in comparison to the lines of people waiting to buy $180 pairs of Jordan (NKE) shoes.

Certainly, such a discount implies that the channel may be a bit stuffed. On the basis of Under Armour's current market positioning, we don't expect the footwear segment to gain significant traction relative to the firm's larger competitors. And as long as the products and endorsements lack the stature of its competitors, Under Armour will have a difficult time making significant strides transitioning to a diversified athletic products company.

With the shares still trading over $70, we maintain our view that the company is overvalued. We continue to evaluate the firm as a put option candidate in the portfolio of our Best Ideas Newsletter.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Instagram goes to Washington

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's not everyday a startup founder gets an invite to one of the White House's most anticipated events.

Instagram co-founder Mike Krieger got the call last Friday. Krieger, a Brazilian native, was invited as First Lady Michelle Obama's guest to the President's Stateof the Union address.

"You don't say no to the White House," Krieger said. "I booked a flight and arrived Monday night."

Although President Obama's campaign actively uses photosharing tool Instagram, his presence was tied more to a larger policy initiative.

In Krieger's case, his attendance represented the need for legislation that would assist non U.S. citizen startup founders looking to build a company in America.

Krieger, who co-founded Instagram with Kevin Systrom in 2010, is currently working under an H1-B after his student visa came to an end. With $7.5 million in funding, 10 employees, and 15 million users, he's now looking to stay in the United States permanently and continue to grow the company.

In his State of the Union address, Obama alluded to the importance of immigration reform aimed at startup founders like Krieger who want to stay in the United States to build a company despite the upcoming election.

"We should be working on comprehensive immigration reform right now," Obama said. "But if election-year politics keeps Congress from acting on a comprehensive plan, let's at least agree to stop expelling responsible young people who want to staff our labs, start new businesses, and defend this country."

During his time in Washington, Krieger spent the morning with the White House's Chief Technology Officer Aneesh Chopra and CTO advisor on mobile and data innovation Brian Forde.

"We brought Mike in early to hear his story and learn about what he's done and get his feedback," Chopra said. "The president has acknowledged and is very supportive of the idea that we need an immigration policy that makes sense in today's economy and that is in part due to people like Mike who are choosing to come to our nation ... to hire and employ people to stay and grow jobs."

But reform must reflect the changes in the technology realm, Krieger said.

"A lot of the regulations were created before we got into this age where folks can start companies cheaply and bootstrap and get things started," he says. "Nowadays companies start with fewer people and less investments, so it's a matter of finding out what regulations can be updated to match that reality."

But Krieger feels optimistic.

"It feels to me that this issue is slightly less contentious than others," he said.

Before leaving the White House, Krieger snapped a picture of the First Lady on Instagram, added a photo filter, and posted it to Twitter. And like any entrepreneur, he's always looking for new users.

"Hopefully we can get Michelle on Instagram soon," he said 

5 Quality Dividend Stocks For A Diversified Portfolio

In this article, I analyze five stocks that could, when put together, form a diversified income-producing portfolio. I chose these stocks from stable sectors and identified them based on the discount at which they are selling relative to their peers on a discounted cash flow basis. The five sectors that I have focused on for this article are consumer staples, consumer discretionary, telecommunications, utilities and materials. As always, use my analysis as a starting point for conducting your own investigation and analysis prior to making any investment decisions.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)

Operating in consumer staples, Kimberly-Clark manufactures and markets health care and personal care products worldwide and has a market cap of $28 billion. It has a 52 week trading range of $61 to $74.25 and is now trading at around $72, with a trailing PE of 17.

Kimberly-Clark pays a solid dividend yield of 4%, which is the fourth highest in its industry and higher than Colgate-Palmolive's (CL) 3%, and Procter and Gamble's (PG) 3%. It has a return on equity of 28%, which is lower than Colgate-Palmolive's 87% and higher than Procter and Gamble's 18.

Kimberly-Clark saw a 3% drop in third quarter 2011 earnings to $5 billion and net income drop by 7% to $401 million. For the same period Kimberly-Clark's balance sheet strengthened with cash and cash equivalents rising 36% to $1.2 billion, with long-term debt remaining steady at $5.8 billion.

In addition, Kimberly-Clark's dividend yield of around 4% is higher than both ten year Treasuries and the U.S. inflation rate for December 2011 of 2.96%. The company also has a strong dividend payment history, having consistently paid a steadily rising dividend since 1985. This dividend has increased in value since then by 866% to $2.80 per share. Currently Kimberly-Clark has a dividend payout ratio of 66% and both this and its dividend history indicate the company is able to maintain its dividend payment.

The earnings outlook for Kimberly-Clark is quite solid due to its strong market position in non-cyclical paper, health and hygiene-related consumer products. It also has a portfolio of established brands all of which are consumer staples and have relatively inelastic demand. Finally, at current prices I believe the stock is undervalued as it has an earnings yield of 6%, which is more than double the risk free rate. This represents a healthy risk premium for a company operating in the consumer staples sector.

Leggett & Platt (LEG)

After the consumer staples sector, my next pick is in the consumer discretionary sector and I have selected Leggett & Platt, a company that many of you may not be aware of. The company designs and produces various engineered components and products worldwide including residential furnishings and commercial fixtures. It is a small cap company with a market cap of $3 billion. It has a 52 week trading range of $17.80 to $26.95 and is currently trading at around $23 with a trailing PE of 20.

Leggett & Platt has a dividend yield of 5%, which is more than double the ten year Treasury bond yield and higher than the U.S December 2011 inflation rate of 2.96%. It is also is difficult to find a yield this high in the consumer discretionary sector and it is the highest dividend yield in the home furnishings and fixtures industry. It is superior to Hooker's (HOFT) 3% and Sealy's (ZZ) 0%. It has a return on equity of 12%, which is higher than Hooker's 3% and marginally lower than Sealy's 13%.

For the third quarter 2011, Leggett & Platt saw a 0.5% drop in earnings to $940 million, and an 18% drop in net income to $45 million. For the same period Leggett & Platt's balance sheet strengthened with cash and cash equivalents rising 8% to $219 million, although long-term debt also rose by 5% to $897 million.

The company has a strong dividend payment history, having consistently paid a steadily rising dividend since 1988. This dividend has increased by 1,300% since then, to its current value of $1.12 per share. The company has a dividend payout ratio of 92%, which as a quick and dirty measure of dividend stability does not bode well for the company's dividend stability. However, many analysts have forecast that the company's earnings will grow meaningfully over 2012 due to improving U.S economic sentiment. This in my opinion should see an increase in the dividend in 2012.

I also believe that the company's profit margin of 5% is indicative of further net income growth, being higher than both the five year minimum of -20% and average of 3%. My only concern is the stocks beta of 1.27, which indicates that the stock price is more volatile than the market, although this is something to be expected from a small-cap. Finally, at current prices I believe the stock is fairly valued with an earnings yield of 5%, allowing for a small risk premium over the current risk free rate of ten year Treasuries.

Telstra (TLSYY.PK)

Now let's dive into my pick for the telecommunications sector and here I am looking at the Australian company Telstra. It is the largest telecommunications provider in Australia and provides telecommunications and information services to individuals, businesses, and governments and enterprises in Australia and internationally. The company has a market cap of $44 billion, a 52 week trading range of $12.65 to $17.62 and is now trading at around $18, with a trailing PE of 13.

Telstra holds a dominant position in the Australian telecommunications market and pays a solid dividend yield of around 8%, which is higher than AT&T's (T) 6% and Verizon's (VZ) 5%. Its return on equity of 26% is also higher than AT&T's 10% and Verizon's 5%. This dividend is also higher than my two key measures, firstly the U.S inflation rate, which for December 2011 was 2.96% and secondly ten year Treasury bond yields.

Telstra saw a 3% rise in first half 2011 earnings to $13 billion, and during this period net income rose by a massive 71% to $2 billion. For the same period Telstra's balance sheet weakened with cash and cash equivalents dropping 5% to $2.7 billion and long-term debt rising 2% to $12 billion.

The company also has a strong dividend payment history, having consistently paid a steadily rising dividend since 2002. This dividend has increased by 137% since then, to its current value of $1.40 per share. It is also a mature company holding a dominant position in a mature telecommunications market, which supports its dividend payout ratio of 98%. Overall, this bodes well for Telstra being able to maintain its dividend payout over the short to medium-term. In my opinion, the stock is also undervalued at current prices as it has an earnings yield of 8%. This is more than triple the risk free rate of ten year Treasury bonds and represents a buying opportunity at that yield.

American Electric Power Company (AEP)

My next stock is from the utilities sector, which is known for its earnings stability and lower stock price volatility. From this sector I have selected American Electric, which has a market cap of $20 billion and is the fifth largest electric utilities company in the U.S. The company has a 52 week trading range of $33.09 to $41.98 and is now trading at around $41 with a trailing PE of 11.

American Electric has a solid dividend yield of 5% and this is higher than many of its competitors, including Southern (SO) and NextEra (NEE), both of which have yields of around 4%. Its return on equity of 13% is also greater than Southern's 9% and NextEra's 10%.

For the third quarter 2011, American Electric saw a 20% rise in earnings to $4 billion and a massive 164% rise in net income to $928 million. During this period it reported a stronger balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents rising by 21% to $608 million and long-term debt dropping by 2% to $15 billion.

American Electric has a solid dividend payment history, having consistently paid a dividend since 1971. The company also has a dividend payout ratio of 49%, which bodes well for its ability to sustain its dividend payment. I also quite like the company's debt to equity ratio of 0.77, which indicates a strong balance sheet and further supports my view that its dividend is stable. American Electric also has a beta of 0.40, which in my opinion is a big plus when selecting a stock for a diversified income portfolio. This indicates that it has relatively low price volatility, boding well for the reduced likelihood of capital loss over the long-term.

Finally, I find American Electric's earnings yield of 9% quite compelling as in my opinion it indicates that the company is undervalued by the market at the current price. This earnings yield is more than triple the risk free yield and therefore presents as a buying opportunity.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH)

My final pick is from the materials sector and I have chosen an agricultural chemicals producer Terra Nitrogen. Interestingly, this company is a partnership and as a result is obliged by the partnership agreement, to distribute each quarter 100% of its "available cash", as defined by the partnership agreement. Terra Nitrogen produces and sells nitrogen fertilizer products for agricultural and industrial applications and has a market cap of $3.6 billion. It has a 52 week trading range of $101.21 to $199.50 and is trading at around $190 with a trailing PE of 13.

I have chosen Terra Nitrogen for its dividend yield of 9%, which is the highest in its industry and higher than Potash Corporation's (POT) 0.6% and Monsanto's (MON) 1.5%. Its return on equity of 182% is also the highest in its industry and greater than Potash Corporation's 38% and Monsanto's 14.5%. Its dividend yield also meets my requirements of being greater than both the U.S inflation rate, which for December 2011 was 2.96%, and the yield of ten year Treasuries.

Terra Nitrogen has seen third quarter 2011 earnings rise 2.4% to $203 million and net income drop slightly by 0.4% to $128 million. Its balance sheet has weakened during this period, with a 6% drop in cash and cash equivalents to $144 million.

The company also has a strong dividend payment history, having consistently paid a dividend since 1992. This dividend has increased by 554% since then to its current value of $15.84. The company also has the dividend well covered with a dividend payout ratio of 81%, despite being compelled to distribute all available cash.

I also like this company due to its debt free balance sheet, which bodes well for net income and dividend stability. Plus its stock price has quite low volatility with a beta of 0.30, which bodes well for mitigating the risk of capital loss.

Finally, despite trading at close to its 52 week peak, the company has an earnings yield of 7%. This is more than triple the current ten year Treasury bond yields, thus indicating that the company is undervalued even at its current price.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

RIM’s Wobbly Future

Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) was up just over 1% on Monday afternoon, to $17, but down almost 76% from the company�s 52-week high. The beleaguered BlackBerry manufacturer recently saw a leadership change that put Thorsten Heins in charge, but Heins� out-of-the-gate missteps did little to calm investor worries. Former CEO Mike Lazaridis announced Friday that he plans to purchase $50 million in additional stock as a sign of confidence in the company. He appears to be the only one feeling confident. This week�s trading began under a New York Times headline declaring �BlackBerry Under Siege in Europe.�

RIM�s supposed assailant in Europe is Samsung (PINK:SSNLF), a company that weeks ago shot down rumors it had any interest in purchasing RIM. Samsung predominantly produces devices that run Google�s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android operating system and has become one of the world�s two largest smartphone manufacturers, trading the lead every now and then with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

The Times cited Samsung�s size as a primary reason it could be a RIM slayer. A Forrester Research survey found that among information workers who use smartphones for at least an hour a day, Android phones, Apple�s iPhone, and RIM�s BlackBerry capture roughly equal shares of the market. In Europe, researchers think Android phones will win out.

What�s clear to anyone who has followed RIM news over the past six months is that the company�s user base is going to be reduced � and it may be RIM itself that does the reducing. Heins, whose appointment was supposed to buoy investor confidence, appeared committed to a business strategy built on the hope that a security calamity would befall a competitor, prompting customers to run back to BlackBerry for safety. Android in particular has been vulnerable to security issues in the past, but the emerging version of the operating system, nicknamed Ice Cream Sandwich, has those issues largely solved.

Undermining Heins� tactic is the fact that RIM�s newer devices haven�t exactly been bastions of security. RIM�s PlayBook tablets lacked native email for months after their release and required a costly upgrade for businesses interested in secure emails. This has been rectified, though, in the recent PlayBook upgrade. The newest BlackBerry in the RIM lineup, BlackBerry 10, may indeed be an improvement over its predecessors, but that release has been delayed until the end of the year.

It does seem easy these days to kick RIM while it�s down, but it�s still premature to count BlackBerry out. There�s still strong brand recognition and businessperson loyalty, especially among older workers who are familiar and comfortable with RIM technologies. But the company needs to start demonstrating confidence in its own products before it can expect consumers, and investors, to follow suit.

Mastering Volatility

Although the u.s. stock market took has taken investors for a wild ride over the past year, it has largely remained unchanged. It’s enough to drive risk-adverse clients up a tree.

After reaching a 50-year high in volatility, the S&P 500 (SPY) delivered flat performance in 2011 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) gained 5.5 percent.

What can advisors do to hedge volatility? How can they calm their client’s nerves? Are VIX ETPs the answer?

One barometer of stock market volatility is the CBOE Volatility Index also known as “the VIX.” The VIX is a forward looking tool that measures the expected future volatility of the S&P 500 stock index for the next 30 days. The VIX is quoted in percentage points and it was first introduced in a research paper by Professor Robert E. Whaley at Duke University.

Today, the VIX indicator has become a popular gauge of investor fear and complacency. A high VIX reading signals fear whereas a low reading means increasing risk appetite among investors. By using a weighted blend of various S&P index options, the VIX attempts to estimate the implied volatility for U.S. stocks.

Late last October, three-month volatility for the VIX peaked at a record level of 191.59. This surpassed previous levels of elevated stock market volatility in late 2008, when the VIX traded around 190. The median VIX reading over the past 10 years has been 92.56.

The same stock market volatility that treated a select group of Wall Street titans with courtesy hasn’t been so friendly as of late. Hedge funds that previously thrived on stock market peaks and valleys hit a brick wall in 2011. Renowned managers like John Paulson that once could do no wrong, got whipsawed.

Paulson’s Advantage Plus fund lost around 52 percent in 2011 after making incorrect bets on Bank of America, Hewlett Packard and gold. Paulson became a Wall Street folk hero after making billions of dollars with bearish bets on subprime mortgage debt during the financial crisis. In 2010, he personally raked in more than $5 billion in profits.

Crispin Odey a London based manager who accurately predicted a banking collapse, was also among the worst performers last year. His $2.4 billion stock fund lost almost 25 percent in value.

Hedge Fund Research reported that hedge funds lost 5 percent on average last year compared to flat performance for the S&P 500. For long/short equity managers, it was one of the worst 12-month periods since the early 1990s. 

VIX Strategies

Instead of avoiding volatility, some advisors set aside a portion of their clients’ portfolios to trade it. Since it’s impossible to invest directly in the VIX, the next best choice is to trade ETPs that are linked to it.

The ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY) aims for a return that is inverse the return of S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. If short-term volatility in the S&P falls, SVXY is designed to increase. Since SVXY aims for that opposite exposure for just a single day and holding it for longer periods could result in performance returns that are different from the target return for the same period. These differences are caused by many factors, like compounding of daily returns, fees and (what else?) stock market volatility. 

For advisors that want a bullish trade on volatility, the ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (VIXM) and VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) both offer VIX exposure but with different time frames.

The S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Index has been negatively correlated to the S&P 500 over the past several years, minus 0.77 in 2009 and minus 0.86 in 2010. It’s also generated relatively low beta compared to the VIX, indicating less sensitivity to price movement. VIXM and VIXY aim for 1x daily performance.

For leveraged long VIX exposure, the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) shoots for double or 2x daily leverage to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. All of the ProShares VIX ETFs charge annual expenses of 0.95 percent.

 

Finding their Place

Where do VIX ETPs fit in as an investment strategy?

“At first, I thought VIX ETPs would be perfect hedging vehicles for the market, but I found this not to be as simple as an uninformed investor might believe,” said Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA with Janney Montgomery Scott. “Some of these ‘volatility ETFs’ appear to actually increase volatility at times, rather than keep it in check. But I would not discount them entirely.”

Witthohn observes that one short-term volatility ETF was up over 150 percent in the third quarter alone while over the same period the S&P was down just 14 percent. While this might get an investor’s heart racing, it should be noted that in April of 2011 the S&P was up slightly less than 3 percent while the same volatility ETF declined over 20 percent.

“The jury is still out,” he says, “as I would like to see more history behind these relatively new products. But what I have seen so far has captured my attention and I am certainly looking forward to reviewing these products further as the market goes through what may be a very volatile year ahead.”

 

Minimizing Swings

Low beta ETPs are another twist on playing stock market volatility. The general idea is to own a basket of stocks with low volatility while simultaneously avoiding higher beta stocks.

An approach along those lines is taken by the QuantShares U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund (BTAL). The fund screens for stocks that are less volatile than the overall market. BTAL’s target index, which is compiled by Dow Jones Indexes, is equal weighted, dollar neutral, sector neutral and not levered. The index rebalances monthly by identifying the lowest beta stocks as long positions and highest beta stocks as short positions, of approximately equal dollar amounts, within each sector.

“VIX ETF products are futures based and are very different from Act of 1940 registered funds such as Quantshares,” said Chuck Martin, CFA at QuantShares. “Our anti-beta is one of our tactical funds that provide a mechanism for investors to hedge unintended portfolio exposures or to express precise views on the market.”  

Martin says the anti-beta strategy has a historical correlation of minus 0.8 to the overall U.S. equity market.  The resulting portfolio tends to be long stocks that have high dividends and do not suffer much during downturns and short more volatile names that tend to sell off more steeply in bear markets. Here’s what it means: If an advisor expects more stable companies to outperform going forward or if they wish to hedge some of their long beta exposure, an anti-beta fund could be a good choice.

BTAL’s net annual expense ratio is 0.81 percent.

The PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV) is another ETF that plays on the same theme of low beta. SPLV consists of the 100 stocks from the S&P 500 Index with the lowest realized volatility over the past 12 months, based on a statistical measurement of the magnitude of up and down asset price fluctuations over time. The fund’s annual expense ratio is 0.25 percent.

 

Further Considerations

Before diving into VIX ETFs, advisors should keep a few things in mind. First, VIX ETFs do not perfectly track the spot prices for the CBOE Volatility Index; this is because they use futures contracts. Additionally, VIX ETFs are treated differently than stocks from a tax standpoint and a K-1 might be generated. Lastly, VIX-based exchange-traded notes (ETNs) are backed solely by the credit quality of the issuer, which adds another dimension of risk.

In the short run, reducing stock market volatility may be high on a client’s list of priorities. But in the long run, preoccupation with short-term ups and downs could hurt their long-term performance. Advisors who help their clients to understand this most basic financial truth have achieved something of considerable value. •

 

SREI Infra Bonds issue closing date extended to Mar 6

SREI Infrastructure Finance Ltd has informed BSE that the issue of Tranche 1 Bonds issued by Srei Infrastructure Finance Limited was scheduled to close on January 31, 2012. Further the Company has informed that, pursuant to resolution passed by Committee of Directors of the Company on January 30, 2012, the Tranche 1 Issue Closing Date has now been extended by 35 days and the Tranche 1 Issue will consequently close on March 6, 2012.

All other terms, conditions and contents shall remain unchanged.

In view of the above, the Company has issued the Corrigendum to the Prospectus - Tranche 1 dated December 28, 2011 (the "Corrigendum") for the extension of the Tranche 1 Issue Closing Date.

  

Stock Brokers Bid for ETF Clients

Online brokers are bidding for a greater share of online customer trades. And in some cases, they're taking some very aggressive measures.

During the first quarter, Charles Schwab announced it would provide commission-free internet trades on Schwab ETFs to its brokerage customers. The company hopes the move will divert investments away from competitors and accelerate asset flows into its own lineup of proprietary ETFs.

BlackRock and Fidelity joined forces to offer online commission-free trading for 25 iShares funds to investors with Fidelity brokerage accounts.

Among the ETFs listed for commission-free trades are popular funds like the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM), iShares S&P 500 Index Fund (IVV), iShares Russell 1000 (IWB) and the iShares U.S. Barclays Aggregate Bond Index Fund (AGG).

Fidelity also reduced all online trades to a flat $7.95 in an attempt to undercut Schwab's $8.95 fee.

In January Vanguard's brokerage unit began offering 100 commission-free trades to a select group of its flagship clients with at least $1 million or more in assets. In the past, the company has given flagship clients 12 free commission trades.

ArcelorMittal Surpasses Estimates

Recently, ArcelorMittal (MT) reported results for the fourth quarter and full year 2009. During the quarter, ArcelorMittal recorded net income of $1.1 billion, or 71 cents, as compared to a net loss of $2.6 billion, or $1.93 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2008.

Reported EPS was much higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 19 cents. Net income for the twelve months ended December 31, 2009 was $0.1 billion, or 8 cents, versus $9.4 billion, or $6.80 per share, in 2008. Full year EPS was also well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate for a loss of 47 cents.

During the quarter, sales were $18.6 billion, down from $22.1 billion in the year-ago quarter. Despite the improvement in demand, sales remain substantially lower year-over-year due to the global economic crisis. Full year 2009 sales were $65.1 billion, versus $124.9 billion in 2008. Sales were lower due to lower average steel selling prices (-27%) and lower steel shipment volumes (-30%) based on a sharp drop in global steel demand following the global economic crisis.

Total steel shipments for the three months ended December 31, 2009 were 20.0 million metric tonnes, as compared with steel shipments of 17.1 million metric tonnes for the three months ended December 31, 2008. This increase results from improved demand across all segments in the fourth quarter of 2009, as compared with the third quarter of 2009.

Total steel shipments for the twelve months ended December 31, 2009 decreased to 71.1 million metric tonnes, as compared with total steel shipments of 101.7 million metric tonnes in 2008.

The first quarter of 2010 EBITDA is expected to be approximately $1.8 - $2.2 billion. Shipments are expected to be higher during the first quarter of 2010, as compared to the fourth quarter of 2009, but this increase is expected to be offset by slightly lower average selling prices and increased costs.

ArcelorMittal expects a surge in steel demand in the coming months, largely due to the technical recovery as inventory de-stocking nears completion. Although the steel sector scenario remains unpredictable, we also expect a gradual sales recovery in the next couple of quarters. However, we do not expect demand to return to the levels of 2008 in the medium term.

A reversal of global economic activity triggered by the intensification of the credit crisis last September led steelmakers to stop operations at several plants, lay off staff and refinance debt. The U.S. steelmakers are still operating at almost half their capacity. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute, U.S. plant capacity is at 53.9%, below 90.4% a year ago.

Global steel prices have fallen in some regions from their peak in mid-2008, as the recession triggers a reduction in demand from sectors such as construction and automotives. We believe this will continue in the very near term.

Author's Disclosure: none

Top Stocks For 2012-2-1-5

 

CHULA VISTA, Calif.–(CRWENEWSWIRE)– First PacTrust Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:FPTB), the holding company for Pacific Trust Bank (the �Bank�), today announced that it has received an investment of $32.0 million in the Company�s preferred stock from the United States Department of the Treasury under the Small Business Lending Fund (the �SBLF�). The SBLF is a $30 billion voluntary program intended to encourage small business lending by providing capital to qualified community banks at favorable rates.

�We are pleased to have completed the SBLF capital infusion in support of our small business lending operations,� commented Gregory A. Mitchell, President and CEO. Mr. Mitchell added, �We believe our participation in the SBLF program is a great opportunity for the Company and the Bank to continue to meet the credit needs of the small business community and also to benefit our stockholders.�

As of June 30, 2011, the Company had consolidated total assets of $882.3 million and stockholders� equity of $160.5 million. The Company�s book value per share was $13.91 as of June 30, 2011, based upon 11,520,067 shares of common stock outstanding as of that date.

About the Company

First PacTrust Bancorp, Inc. is the parent holding company of Pacific Trust Bank and is headquartered in Chula Vista, California. The Bank currently operates through 11 banking offices serving primarily San Diego and Riverside Counties in California. The Bank provides customers with the convenience of banking at more than 4,300 branch locations throughout the United States as part of the CU Services Network and 28,000 fee-free ATM locations through the CO-OP ATM Network.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are necessarily subject to risk and uncertainty and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated due to various factors, including those set forth from time to time in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any such statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the dates on which the forward-looking statements are made.

Source: First PacTrust Bancorp, Inc.

Contact:

First PacTrust Bancorp, Inc.
Gregory A. Mitchell, President and CEO
(619) 691-1519, ext. 4474

 

 

THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY!

Stocks poised for manufacturing boost

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were headed for a modestly higher open Wednesday, as investors welcomed stronger manufacturing data around the world.

S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were up about 0.6% ahead of the opening bell. Stock futures indicate the possible direction of the markets when they open at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Manufacturing activity picked up in China, Germany, France and the United Kingdom in January, according to separate reports. Investors will also closely watch a reading on U.S. manufacturing, the ISM Manufacturing Index, due later in the morning.

Meanwhile, the other big news Wednesday looks likely to be Facebook's long-awaited IPO filing. According to reports from outlets including the New York Times and CNBC, Facebook is seeking to raise up to $5 billion in its offering.

If that number is correct, Facebook would by far be the largest global IPO by an Internet-focused company, according to data from Dealogic. Some experts have suggested that the social network could be valued between $75 billion and $100 billion once it starts trading, which will likely happen a few months after its initial filing.

Europe: 4 things you need to know

Meanwhile, anxieties over Greece and its struggle to broker a debt-reduction deal with private-sector creditors continue to underpin sentiment.

U.S. stocks traded in a narrow range Tuesday, after worse-than-expected U.S. housing and manufacturing data tempered the modest enthusiasm over Europe's progress on a new pact aimed at promoting fiscal discipline.

World markets: European stocks posted solid gains in mid-day trading. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) added 1.3%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 1.9% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) rose 1.5%.

Asian markets ended most lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 1.1%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong dropped 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) was flat.

Economy: A weaker-than-expected report on private-sector jobs from payroll processing firm ADP briefly spooked investors.

The ADP report showed that the private sector added 170,000 jobs in January. The report was expected to show that 200,000 jobs were added last month, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com, down from the revised gains of 292,000 the month prior.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for January is expected to stand at 54.5, up from 53.9 in December. Meanwhile, a report on December construction spending is expected to show an increase in 0.4%, versus the month prior.

Companies: NYSE Euronext (NYX, Fortune 500) announced early Wednesday that it will terminate its merger agreement with Deutsche Boerse. The proposed $10 billion takeover of the operator of the New York Stock Exchange would have created the world's largest exchange, but was quashed by European officials.

Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) is recalling 1 million packs of birth control pills, after the pharmaceutical giant discovered that some blister packs may contain an inexact count of inert or active ingredient tablets, and that the tablets may be out of sequence. Birth control pills typically have to be taken in sequence to be effective. Pfizer shares slid 0.8%.

Is JC Penney the future of retail?

Shares of Tupperware (TUP) fell nearly 2% after the company reported earnings per share that fell 3 cents short of forecasts. Hershey's (HSY, Fortune 500) shares edged lower after the chocolate maker reported earnings and sales in line with estimates.

Whirlpool (WHR, Fortune 500) shares rose 5.5% in premarket trading after the company beat Wall Street expectations on both earnings and revenue.

Broadcom's (BRCM, Fortune 500) stock also got a boost after the seminconductor firm reported slightly better results and issued a brighter outlook.

Two years after its bankruptcy and U.S. bailout, Chrysler Group posted 2011 net income of $183 million, its first annual profit since 2005. Although the company is no longer publicly traded, its results boosted shares of its competitors, General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Ford (F, Fortune 500) about 0.5% in premarket trading.

Shares of online retailer Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) plunged 9.1% in premarket trading, after the company reported quarterly revenue late Tuesday that missed analysts' estimates. But the company beat profit expectations.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for March delivery gained 24 cents to $98.72 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $9.40 to $1,749.80 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 1.83% from 1.80% late Tuesday.  

Australian shares sink as miners drag

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) � Australian shares sank on Wednesday as a pick-up in Chinese manufacturing activity failed to offset a string of disappointing U.S. economic reports, and investors remained cautious ahead of earnings season.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO �lost 0.9%, or 37 points, to end the session at 4,225.70.

Click to Play Home prices, consumer confidence drop

U.S. home prices fell again in November, while January's consumer confidence gave back some of its recent gains.

The market reacted to a negative lead from Wall Street after US consumer confidence, data showing slowing business activity and a fall in home prices troubled investors. Read more about the U.S. session.

�The U.S. data last night let people know the recovery is not [progressing] as quickly as we thought,� Lucinda Chan, investment adviser at Macquarie Private Wealth said.

�There is also a bit of caution with reporting season coming up and some profit-taking after a strong start to the year,� she said.

Data from China showed a mixed picture of manufacturing activity in the world�s second-largest economy, as HSBC�s Chinese manufacturing survey remained stuck in contraction in January, while the government version indicated the sector is now growing.

Macquarie Private Wealth�s Chan said the China readings �weren�t too bad, but the U.S. data overshadowed them and resulted in weaker commodity prices, which hit our market pretty badly today.�

Of large-cap miners, BHP Billiton Ltd.AU:BHP � BHP �lost 1.5% after the firm said it would cut up to 155 workers from its nickel division due to the impact of a strong Australian dollar.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. AU:FMG ��dropped 1.4% and Rio Tinto Ltd. AU:RIO �RIO �lost 0.6%.

Shares in Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. AU:ERA � EGRAF �slumped 13.6% after the uranium miner swung to a sharp annual loss in 2011, with the result impacted by heavy rainfall and poor quality ore.

Other commodity-linked stocks fell after prices for raw materials weakened overnight. OneSteel Ltd. AU:OST � OSTLY �and Alumina Ltd. AU:AWC � AWC �each shed 2%.

Fairfax Media Ltd. AU:FXJ �FFXLY dazzled, with shares surging 10.1%, after reports that iron ore billionaire Gina Rinehart�s stake in the company has increased to approximately 12%.

Elsewhere in the media sector, Ten Holdings Ltd. AU:TEN edged up 0.6% while Seven West Media Ltd. AU:SWM �shed 2.9%.

Property firms were weak, as Stockland Ltd AU:SGP �declined 1.2% and Lend Lease Ltd. AU:LLC �fell 2.7% while building products maker James Hardie Industries SE AU:JHX � JHX �dropped 2%

The falls came as a Housing Industry Association survey showed new home sales in Australia fell 4.9% in December. Separately, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported capital city house prices fell 1% in the fourth-quarter of last year.

Also on the economic front, manufacturing improved slightly in January, with the Australian Industry Group - PwC Australian performance of manufacturing index rising 1.4 points to 51.6.

�The growth was underpinned by expansion in key sub-sectors such as food & beverages and transport equipment,� said Australian Industry Group chief executive Heather Ridout.

Bernanke Comments Bring iShares Gold Trust ETF Into Focus

Markets seem to be in a state of confusion, as positive news and data is offset by just as many negative factors. Some investors feel that 2012 will continue to see its nice rally, as this past month was the best January for equities since 1997. Others think that the fun is over as a number of potential issues have begun to rear their head. One of the most disturbing bits of news is the potential for Standard & Poor’s to downgrade U.S. debts once again. Though it is merely speculation at this point, another downgrade would likely erase all of the progress we have made since August of last year [see also ETFs For The Capital Preservationist].

For now, investors will have their attention fixated on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, as he testifies before Congress on the state of the economy later today. “The appearance will come just a week after the U.S. central bank’s announcement that it is likely to keep interest rates near zero for nearly three more years, a decision that may prove controversial with some Republicans” writes Reuters. With a number of congressmen opposed to the Fed’s current actions, Bernanke will certainly be grilled about the Fed’s plans for the future, as well as a more detailed outline for the future of interest rates, which have been frozen near zero for quite some time.

The testimony, which will come at 10 a.m. EST, will likely encompass varying aspects of our economy, as Bernanke is expected to be asked “to assess the state of the U.S. recovery, the central challenges facing American fiscal policy, the economic impact of Europe’s economic and political struggles, and the Fed’s recent conduct of monetary policy” writes John Shaw. As many know, when Bernanke testifies or makes a speech, markets are quick to react. Gold, in particular, is prone to big moves based on Bernanke’s comments, as traders take cues from the chairman on where the precious metal will be headed in days to come [see also Three Reasons Why Gold Is Overvalued].

click to enlarge

In light of this, today’s ETF to watch will be the COMEX Gold Trust (IAU). IAU is a physically-backed gold product which charges 25 basis points in comparison to GLD’s 40. This cost cutting strategy has been helping IAU to gain more assets than its competitor, though it is still substantially smaller when all is said and done. Look for comments on monetary policy and the impact of European woes to be big movers for gold today as well as in the coming trading sessions. With the testimony coming an hour after markets open, investors with strong opinions on the event have time to hop into this ETF and potentially profit from its subsequent move [see also Cost Competition: Inflows Surge For Cheap ETFs].

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.

Disclaimer: ETF Database is not an investment advisor, and any content published by ETF Database does not constitute individual investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. From time to time, issuers of exchange-traded products mentioned herein may place paid advertisements with ETF Database. All content on ETF Database is produced independently of any advertising relationships.

Original post

Beat the Forex Dealer: An insider’s look into trading today’s foreign exchange market (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover)

Product Description
The foreign-exchange market is often referred to as the Slaughterhouse where novice traders go to get ‘chopped up’. It is one of egos and money, where millions of dollars are won and lost every day and phones are routinely thrown across hectic trading desks. This palpable excitement has led to the explosion of the retail FX market, which has unfortunately spawned a new breed of authors and gurus more than happy to provide misleading and often downright fraudulent (more…)

Dentist Long Island And Dental Concerns

A dentist Long Island serve as your initial line of defense against dental health issues. Although dentist Long Island present primarily preventative care and minor restorative therapy, they often can perform a wide array of dental procedures, like cosmetic treatments.

Even though dentists usually forgo postgraduate dental specialist training programs, their training doesn’t necessarily end with dental school. Dentist acquire additional dentistry education by attending lectures and participating in hands-on workshops provided by continuing education programs. Therefore, dentists who decide to enter into practice rather than attend specialized postgraduate training programs might still gain an advanced dental education beyond that associated with DDS and DMD degrees.

A Dentist who does not perform a given treatment provides you with a specialist referral. Root canal therapy removes infected pulp tissue within the root chamber of the tooth. The hollowed-out tooth is filled with an antibacterial filling, and the tooth is “capped” with a crown for protection. Endodontists specialize in performing root canal therapy, though dentist Long Island also often perform the restorative procedure. Misaligned teeth and malocclusions can be straightened and corrected with dental braces and retainers. Orthodontics is both a functional and cosmetic treatment, and has become an increasingly popular field of dentistry. Dental crowns can repair extensively decayed or damaged teeth. Dental crowns can be made of gold metals, silver metals, porcelain or a combination of porcelain and metal. Some dentists use CAD/CAM technology for the fabrication of dental crowns. In some cases, conservative dental veneers may replace the need for a dental crown. Dentist Long Island, family dentists, prosthodontists, pediatric dentists and cosmetic dentists may perform the crown procedure; however, expertise varies among dentists.

Prior to tooth loss, seniors may experience tooth sensitivity or discoloration due to a loss of enamel and dentin (hard, calcareous tissue beneath the enamel), or root deterioration brought on by gum recession. Seniors are more prone to periodontal disease resulting from improper dental hygiene practices, poor diet, ill-fitting dental appliances and/or diseases such as cancer or diabetes. In fact, the supporting bone structure for the teeth, including the jaw, may shift, which can play havoc on a senior’s bite and may contribute to tooth decay. Seniors are more likely to suffer from inflammation of gum tissue, dry mouth syndrome (often caused by medications) or oral thrush (a fungal disease causing ulcers and whitish spots on membranes of the mouth due to its effect on the immune system).

Because he is regarded as the first level of defense against dental problems, a dentist Long Island is seen primarily as preventative fields. The American Dental Association (ADA) suggests that you visit your family dentist for a checkup a minimum of two times each year. Such checkups provide routine or deep cleanings to eliminate plaque buildup and prevent tooth decay. If necessary, they also provide fluoride treatments to help coat the teeth, a procedure also important in the prevention of cavities. Preventative dental checkups could help with the detection of oral health problems long before the onset of symptoms.

Whenever a New Yorker has missing teeth, they must locate the ideal dentist or periodontist who is an expert in pain free Dental Implants in Long Island. Locating the best Dentist Long Island can certainly make all the difference in getting the comfort, relief and dental healthcare that they need.

A ‘Sure’ Bet on Interest Rates

When designing an options trade, two of the main components are “if” and “when.” But when betting on interest rates, things become a little simpler, because there is no “if,” just a “when.” Interest rates have to go up since they can’t go any lower. So that just leaves the question of when.

I am in the double-dip recession camp. Before all is said and done, I think we will see 5-10 years of frustratingly low growth, and I do not believe interest rates will rise significantly in the coming years. But I do believe interest rates will rise in the next 12-18 months, and that the market will price this in six months in advance.

Here are my reasons:

1. Uncle Sam is set to issue several trillion dollars in new debt in the next two to three years. Right now, concerns over another meltdown have prompted people to run to the safe haven of Treasuries. But several trillion is a big number, and I believe some time in Q1 or Q2 of next year the market will begin to push up yields on Treasuries.

2. If there is even a whiff of inflation, bond yields will spike dramatically.

3. If there is even a whiff of a recovery, the Fed will signal the markets it sees a recovery by raising interest rates, trying to make the recovery emotionally self-sustaining.

4. As ultra-low interest rates continue to fail to spur the economy, it is clear the only beneficiary are the banks using the spread between Fed rates and market rates to generate profits and restore their balance sheets. The Fed cannot politically hold off traditional monetarists who see the risk of asset inflation outweighing the continuing benefit of low interest rates just to help out the banks.

5. Ultra-low interest rates have created far too much speculation in equity, bond and commodity markets, and the Fed may raise rates simply to flush out some speculators and put markets on notice they will do it again if necessary.

How to Play Rising Interest Rates

The riskiest and most profitable way to play rising yields and a decline in bond prices is to buy call options on the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSE: TBT). This exchange-traded fund is a double inverse ETF on the value of 20-year-plus Treasuries. When their daily value falls 1%, this ETF theoretically rises 2%. Because it tracks daily movements in bonds, it is more volatile than the long-term movement of the underlying bond.

If you like the idea underpinning the trade — interest rates will rise and the market will price this in six months or more before it happens — look at TBT January 2012 calls.

Why Should You Do This Now?�

* If you are bearish on the economy as I am, this is a hedge against your own judgments. If we are wrong, and this is recovery is real, this trade will serve to balance any losses from making bearish trades against the economy.

* If you take a long-term perspective — a position that expires in 2012 — this trade is built around easy-to-track fundamentals that give you time to add to or close the position.

* The risk in a longer-term trade is far lower than investing as a bear or a bull on equity markets, which can go anywhere, because over time, interest rates have to go up.

The Secret to Banking Giant Options Gains – If you’re ready to make serious money, we’re talking about 100%-5,300% profits, read our just-released trading guide online now. In it we reveal the money-doubling secret we were banned from sharing, plus two free trades to get you started. Get your FREE copy here!

UPS Profit Beats Estimates

�United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS), the Atlanta, Georgia-based package delivery company, today announced better-than-expected profit for its fourth quarter. The company also forecast strong growth in 2012.�

For the fourth quarter of 2011, UPS� profit fell sharply primarily due to a change in how the company accounts for its pension expenses. Excluding the impact of the change, the company�s profit for the quarter increased, mainly due to strong growth in its consumer business. The strong growth in the consumer business was driven by online shopping during the recent holiday season.�

UPS reported fourth-quarter net income of $725 million, or $0.74 per share, compared with $1.025 billion, or $1.02 per share reported for the same period in the previous year. Excluding charges related to pension-accounting change, the company�s profit for the quarter was $1.28 per share, compared with analysts� estimate of $1.26 per share.�

UPS reported fourth-quarter revenue of $14.2 billion, representing an increase of 6% on a year-over-year basis. The company�s revenue for the quarter fell short of Street estimates of $14.4 billion.�

Looking ahead, UPS expects profit in 2012 to come in between $4.75 per share and $5 per share, which would represent 9% to 15% growth over 2011 levels. Analysts currently expect the company to report 2012 earnings of $4.80 per share.�

Scott Davis, CEO of UPS, said that he expects continued strong demand in U.S. market. Davis said that the U.S. is one of the few economies where expectations are greater than last year.�

Back in December, UPS� rival FedEx (NYSE: FDX) had announced better-than-expected quarterly profits, driven by online sales.�

UPS shares are marginally lower in trading today. The stock fell to an intra-day low of $74.83 in trading today, and at last check, it was down 0.85% to $75.50 on above average volume of 5.23 million.�

In the last one year, UPS shares have gained 5.30%. In the same period, the S&P 500 has risen 2.04%, while UPS� rival FedEx has risen 1.25%.�

How stocks review can help you in selecting the penny stocks?

There are plenty of stocks investors who have made big fortunes by investing in penny stocks.� Some of these investors have become millionaire by investing in these stocks. The term penny stock millionaire was coined in correlation with the success stories of these investors. The penny stock millionaire also began their investment journey like other investors do but they ended up making great fortunes. Some of these investors have started with few thousands and made millions from their investments. But majority of the penny stock investors are ending up losing their money and don�t manage to make enough fortunes from the investments. Almost all of the successful investors have made their fortunes from the investment and turned as Investment Advisors. These experts are providing the tips and ideas for the beginners to enter into the stock markets. More often the experts are associated with the websites that are providing the penny stock reviews and alerts. The reviews offered by the experts can be useful for the beginner to select appropriate stocks but it cannot guarantee you a successful investment.� The investors are depending on the lsit of the hot penny stocks that are provided by the different websites offering penny stock news analysis and market watch. Tough these reviews are beneficial for the beginner but you cannot depend on these sources completely because there are many factors that can let you deprived of the gains. Therefore you need to make your own investment plans and develop your investment strategy. The very first thing that you must be sure is that only that much amount should be invested that you can afford to risk in the market. The penny stock market is quite volatile and there are possibilities that you can lose your money in such investments.
The second very important fact is that you must make investment plan and adhere to that. There after you need to select the Hot Stocks based on the several reviews offered by the different experts. Majority of the beginners are advised to pick-up different penny stocks this concept is known as multi-bagger. This strategy is helpful to balance the risks associated with investing in a single stock.
Apart from this you need to develop your own strategy for Penny Stocks Investing that will help you to maximize your gains. Selection of the appropriate Penny Stocks from the list of the stocks offered by various websites is quite crucial fact that can affect your investment strategy at large. If you are making Penny stocks to watch or Penny Stocks to Trade on the basis of the above point than definitely you can make profits easily.�

Problems With Constant Compound Interest Whether for Governments or Retirees

This is a continuation of an irregular series which you can find here. Maybe if I were more scientific, I would have called it “All Exponential Growth Processes Run Into Constraints and Threats,” or if I were more poetic, “Nothing Lasts Forever — Nothing Grows to the Sky.”

Regardless, simple modeling is the bane of long-duration financial calculations. I remember talking with some friends who served on a charitable board with me about some investment grade long bonds (11-30 years) that I had purchased for a life insurance client that yielded 7-9% in late 1999. They said to me that it was foolish to lock up money for so long in bonds when you could earn so much more in stocks. My three comments to them were:

• It's prohibitive for life insurers to hold equities.
• At current levels of the market, the yield of these bonds more than compensates for the possibility of capital growth in equities (valuations are stretched).
• The risk in the bonds is a lot lower.

And I said we ought to shift our charity’s asset allocation to more bonds, as we were invested past the maximum of our guidelines in equities. They looked in the rearview mirror and said that we were doing fabulous. Why change success?

I was outvoted; I was a one-man minority. There are a lot of people who would have loved to make that change in hindsight, but done is done. I ended up leaving the board a year later over a related issue.

Now, don’t think that I am advising the same in 2011. We may be headed for significant inflation or deflation; it is difficult to tell which. Bonds offer little competition to equities here. Commodities and cash may be better, but I am reluctant to be too dogmatic. If the economy turns down again, long Treasuries would be best.

Here’s the difficulty: Most people have been trained to think at least one of a few things that are wrong:

• That we can use simple models to forecast future outcomes.
• That average people are capable of avoiding fear and greed when it comes to investing.
• That financial markets are random in the sense that last period’s return has no effect on the returns of future periods.
• Over long periods of time, average investors can beat long Treasuries by more than 2% a year. (Corollary to the idea that the equity premium is 4-6% versus 0-2% a year over high-quality bonds.)
• That financial markets are expressions of what is going on in the real economy.
• That the real economy tends toward stability.
• That government actions make the real economy more stable.

I’m prompted to write this because of two articles that I ran across in the last day: Retiring Boomers Find 401(k) Plans Fall Short and Stay Out of the ROOM (registration required).

I’ve written about this before in many places, including Ancient and Modern: The Retirement Tripod. And yet, when I wrote about these issues 20 years ago, one of the things that I tried to point out was that as the demographic bulge retired, it would be difficult for homes and asset markets to throw off the returns necessary, because there would not be enough buyers for the assets/homes. If a large portion of the population wants to convert assets into a stream of income — guess what? They are forced sellers, and yields that they will get will be compressed as a result.

In a situation like that, those who are better off and can delay turning all of their assets into an earnings stream should be disproportionately better off. As with corporations, so with individuals/families: Those with slack assets and flexibility are able to deal with volatility better than those for whom the environment must be stable/favorable for the plan to succeed.

Now, The Wall Street Journal article points at the problems of 401(k) plans. What it says is true, but the same is true of other types of defined contribution and defined benefit plans. When assets underperform, and/or investors make bad choices, guess what? The pain has to be compensated for somehow:

• 401(k)s: They will work longer, maybe all of the rest of their lives, and cut back on expenses and dreams.
• Non-contributory DCs: Maybe the employer will ask them to kick in voluntarily, or he might give more. Also same as 401(k).
• Private sector DB plans: Employers may contribute more, or they may terminate them.
• Public sector DB plans: Taxes may rise, spending cuts enacted, forced contributions to retiree plans negotiated, plans terminated for a 457 plan, partial plan termination, job cuts, funny accounting practices (worse than the private sphere), brinksmanship over debts, etc.

Note that one of the answers is not “take more risk.” First, risk and return are virtually uncorrelated in practice. Only when enough people realize that might risk and return become positively correlated. Second, there are times to increase and decrease risk exposure. Typical people won’t want to do that, because of euphoria (the example of my friends above) and panic. The time to add to high-risk assets is when no one wants to touch a high-yield bond. More broadly, always look for asset classes that throw off the best cash flow yields, conservatively estimated, over the next 10-plus years. Be sure and factor in the likelihood for economic regime changes and capital loss, inflation, deflation, etc.

Good asset allocation marries the time horizon of an investor to the forecasts for future returns, conservatively stated, and considers what could go wrong. At present, investment opportunities are average-ish. I would be wary of stretching for yield here, or raising my risk exposure in equities. Stick with high quality.

And, for those who are retired, I would be wary of taking too much into income. I have a simple formula for how much one could take from an endowment at maximum:

• 10-Year Treasury Yield
• Plus a credit spread — 2% if spreads are sky-high, 1% if they are good, 0.5% if they are tight.
• Less losses and fees of 0.5% — higher if investment expenses are over 0.25%.

Not very scientific, but I think it is realistic. At a 3.5% 10-yr T-note yield, that puts me at a 4% maximum withdrawal rate, given a 1% credit spread. This attempts to marry withdrawals to alternative uses for capital in the market. You may withdraw more when opportunities are high, and less when they are low. (But who can be flexible enough to have a maximum spending policy that varies over time?)

Now some of the advanced models that calculate odds of retiring successfully are a step in the right direction, but they also need to reflect demographics, time-correlation of returns, regime-shifting returns/economics, etc. Things don’t move randomly in markets; that doesn’t mean I know which way things are going, but it does mean I should be cautious unless the market is offering me a fat pitch to hit.

These statements apply to governments as well, and their financial security programs. In aggregate, investments can’t outgrow growth in GDP by much, unless labor takes a progressively lower share of national income. (And who knows but that the pressure on union DB plans to earn high returns might lead to takeovers/layoffs in private firms …) The real economy and the financial economy are one over the long haul, but can drift apart considerably in the intermediate term.

In summary, any long promise/analysis/plan made must reflect the realities that I mention here. We’ve spent years on the illusions generated by assuming high returns off of financial assets. Now with the first Baby Boomers trying to retire, the reality has arrived — sorry, not everyone in a large birth cohort can retire comfortably. Wish it could be otherwise, but the economy as a whole can’t generate enough to make that proposition work.

I don’t intend that this series should have more parts, but if a relevant idea strikes me, I will write again.

Coming Right Up: Yum! Brands

Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) — This operator of quick-service restaurants, which includes KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Long John Silver’s, and A&W, had held its powerful bull-market trend through almost all of this year’s bear market. But in late September it finally cracked in an irrational round of selling.

The weekly chart shows that YUM has turned up on Collins-Bollinger Reversal (CBR) buy signals from a double-bottom that matches prices in mid-2006.

Get Sam Collins’ Daily Trader’s Alert e-mailed straight to your inbox each morning before the opening bell absolutely FREE!

In addition to getting instant access to his Trade of the Day, you’ll also receive, in the same e-mail, his Daily Market Outlook so you can start your day off right by positioning yourself for profits!

Click here today to sign up today for Sam’s FREE Daily Trader’s Alert!

Sam Collins is a registered, fee-based portfolio manager who may be contacted samailc@cox.net. You can also check out an archive of some of his most recent market outlooks by clicking here.

Shire Looks to Grab Market Share From Genzyme

FDA approval of Shire’s (SHPGY) drug for Gaucher’s disease comes as little surprise given that velaglucerase, now known as Vpriv, was already being administered to patients on an approved treatment protocol basis. That treatment protocol followed the well publicised manufacturing problems with the only other approved Gaucher’s product on the market, Cerezyme, which had interrupted supplies to patients (Event – Shire hoping to take market share with Gaucher drug PDUFA, February 12, 2010).

As expected, the group is intending to agressively take market share from Genzyme (GENZ) and, as such, has come out fighting, pricing its drug at a 15% discount to Cerezyme, and has also set out plans to help cap prices for the drug for co-payers next year to just $500. This is a sensible strategy given that Cerezyme is one of the most expensive drugs in the world and in 2008 racked up sales of over $1 billion, thanks to its average price of $200,000 a year.

However, even with this discounting analysts are still estimating that the Shire drug will only take between 20-25% of market share from Genzyme, given the drug's entrenched status in the market. But even this figure now leaves very little room for Protalix's (PLX) Uplyso, which will now be third to market, to capture sales, unless Protalix decides to do much heavier discounting than the 15% that Shire has proffered up to patients and insurers (Protalix's woes continue with Uplyso setback, February 2, 2010).

Doctors will also want to see full clinical data for the drug if only to allay any fears about possible production of antibodies to plant proteins, due to the carrot-cell-based production technique that the group uses in Uplyso, compared with the fully human cell manufacturing process that Shire employs.

Carving out a big niche

So while sales of Vpriv are expected to be respectable at $205m by 2014, according to estimates from EvaluatePharma, what approval of Vpriv does is advance the group's other step to it establishing itself as an even bigger player in the enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) market.

What will further cement the group’s position in the ERT space is gaining approval for Replagal for Fabry disease.

The drug is currently approved for the treatment of Fabry disease in 45 countries, including Europe, and has been available to US patients since December 2009 under an FDA-approved treatment protocol, following Genzyme stopping production of its drug Fabrazyme because of the same manufacturing problems that led to the cessation of Cerezyme manufacture.

But the group’s plans to get the drug onto the market quickly were hampered by being forced to withdraw its BLA in December after the regulator asked for further pharmacokinetic data to ensure comparability between Replagal made in roller bottles and Replagal made in bioreactors. As a result of this request the group withdrew its BLA, but requested fast track designation following a suggestion from the FDA.

The group now has a rolling submission for the drug planned and is expected to submit the pharmacokinetic data requested by the FDA by the middle of this year. As such, it could see approval later this year or early 2011.

Continuing momentum

As well as a clear lack of alternatives to Genzyme’s Fabrazyme, what might give Replagal’s chances of approval a boost is three-year data presented in the middle of February by the Canadian Fabry Disease Initiative, which compared Fabrazyme and Replagal and showed no differences between the two drugs when cardiac and renal function were taken into account.

Another edge that the drug has is that it appears to show a lower antibody response, something that is important with Fabry disease, which like Gauchers is a lysomal storage disorder, interfering with the body’s ability to break down fatty substances. The disorder causes both cardiovascular and renal dysfunction, intense pain and substantially reduces the life expectancy of the 8,000-10,000 patients worldwide, who usually die of renal or heart failure or stroke.

So if Shire pulls of approval of Replagal, shares in the group, which have already risen by 72% over the last 12 months to today’s nine-year high, could climb even higher as investors start to take on board the group’s full potential in these niche indications.

8 Oversold Stocks With Strong Inventory Trends

Interested in potential rebound candidates? For ideas, we ran a screen you might find interesting.

We ran a screen on stocks that are technically oversold, with RSI(14) below 40. We screened these stocks for those with positive trends in revenue growth relative to change in inventory year-over-year: growth in revenue exceeding their growth in inventory year-over-year, as well as inventory becoming a smaller portion of current assets, indicating a strong liquidity position as well.

?Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the top six stocks mentioned below. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.?

?

Your browser does not support iframes.

We also created a price-weighted index of the stocks mentioned below, and monitored the performance of the list relative to the S&P 500 index over the last month. To access a complete analysis of this list's recent performance, click here.

Do you think these stocks are set to rebound? Use this list as a starting point for your own analysis.

List sorted alphabetically.

1. AngioDynamics Inc. (ANGO): Designs, develops, manufactures, and markets various therapeutic and diagnostic devices that enable interventional physicians to treat PVD, tumors, and other non-coronary diseases. RSI(14) at 35.14. Revenue grew by 8.86% during the most recent quarter ($58.1M vs. $53.37M y/y). Inventory grew by -10.08% during the same time period ($29.43M vs. $32.73M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 18.44% to 14.3% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending 2011-11-30 to 13 weeks ending 2010-11-30).

2. China XD Plastics Company Ltd. (CXDC): RSI(14) at 33.4. Revenue grew by 58.87% during the most recent quarter ($103.82M vs. $65.35M y/y). Inventory grew by 10.44% during the same time period ($30.56M vs. $27.67M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 31.57% to 11.56% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-09-30 to 3 months ending 2010-09-30).

3. Newpark Resources Inc. (NR): Provides fluids management, waste disposal, and well site preparation products and services primarily to the oil and gas exploration and production industry. RSI(14) at 33.57. Revenue grew by 45.69% during the most recent quarter ($261.19M vs. $179.28M y/y). Inventory grew by 32.99% during the same time period ($156.44M vs. $117.63M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 34.44% to 31.09% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-09-30 to 3 months ending 2010-09-30).

4. ONEOK Inc. (OKE): Operates as a natural gas distributor primarily in the United States. RSI(14) at 32.51. Revenue grew by 22.17% during the most recent quarter ($3,595.19M vs. $2,942.7M y/y). Inventory grew by -6.48% during the same time period ($658.06M vs. $703.68M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 35.38% to 28.46% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-09-30 to 3 months ending 2010-09-30).

5. Procter & Gamble Co. (PG): Provides consumer packaged goods in the United States and internationally. RSI(14) at 36.6. Revenue grew by 3.69% during the most recent quarter ($22,135M vs. $21,347M y/y). Inventory grew by 0.28% during the same time period ($7,444M vs. $7,423M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 34.% to 31.47% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-12-31 to 3 months ending 2010-12-31).

6. Quidel Corp. (QDEL): Engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of diagnostic testing solutions for applications primarily in infectious diseases, and reproductive and women's health. RSI(14) at 34.42. Revenue grew by 17.29% during the most recent quarter ($33.11M vs. $28.23M y/y). Inventory grew by -22.9% during the same time period ($14.85M vs. $19.26M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 34.63% to 16.% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-09-30 to 3 months ending 2010-09-30).

7. RTI Biologics, Inc. (RTIX): Produces orthopedic and other surgical implants that repair and promote the natural healing of human bone and other human tissues, and improve surgical outcomes. RSI(14) at 34.17. Revenue grew by 1.% during the most recent quarter ($42.26M vs. $41.84M y/y). Inventory grew by -12.37% during the same time period ($78.54M vs. $89.63M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 54.78% to 48.45% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-09-30 to 3 months ending 2010-09-30).

8. Summer Infant, Inc. (SUMR): Engages in the design, marketing, and distribution of branded juvenile health, safety, and wellness products to retailers primarily in North America and the United Kingdom. RSI(14) at 36.29. Revenue grew by 27.19% during the most recent quarter ($63.34M vs. $49.8M y/y). Inventory grew by -4.43% during the same time period ($43.8M vs. $45.83M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 49.08% to 41.13% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-09-30 to 3 months ending 2010-09-30).

*Accounting data sourced from Google Finance, all other data sourced from Finviz.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.