Thursday, January 29, 2015

Cessna parent to get Beechcraft in $1.4B deal

The parent firm of Cessna Aircraft has reached agreement to acquire the parent of fellow aircraft company Beechcraft in cash deal worth approximately $1.4 billion.

The transaction announced Thursday night by Textron will enable the Providence, R.I.-based diversified firm to expand its general aviation division by adding Beechcraft's special mission, light attack and trainer aircraft to its portfolio. It will also bring Cessna and Beechcraft, both based in Wichita, under one corporate owner.

"From our customers' perspective, this creates a broader selection of aircraft and a larger service footprint — all sharing the same high standards of quality and innovation," Textron Chairman and CEO Scott Donnelly said in a formal statement announcing the agreement.

"I think it's an extremely good fit in terms of product," Donnelly added, referring to Beechcraft's popular King Air line of twin-engine aircraft and Cessna's Caravan and Citation jet lines during a Friday morning conference call with Wall Street analysts.

Beechcraft emerged from bankruptcy court protection this year after shedding much of its debt. Beechcraft CEO Bill Boisture had said in October that the sale of his company's legacy jet assets was close to completion.

In a statement announcing the acquisition deal, Boisture said Textron's experience and willingness to invest in Beechcraft "will help us continue to satisfy our customers and meet our business objectives at a faster pace."

Textron said Friday it would issue roughly $1.1 billion in new debt to finance the deal and provide working capital. However, the company expects to maintain its current debt ratings, Donnelly said.

Holders of equity interests in Beechcraft parent Beech Holdings have delivered sufficient proxies in favor of the transaction, Textron said. The deal, which is subject to regulatory approvals, is expected to close during the first half of 2014, the company said.

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Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Eurozone Sentiment Picks Up

Sentiment in the eurozone picked up in October and added to the region's growing momentum.

Data from the European Commission showed that economic sentiment in the 17 nation bloc rose to 97.8 points in October, its highest level since August 2011. The figure also beat market expectations of 97.3 points.

German confidence continued to rise for a seventh consecutive month even as the nation's government hangs in the balance while Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Social Democrats try to form a coalition. The report showed that confidence in the region's largest economy rose to 104.9.

Related: PreMarket Primer: Thursday, October 31: BOJ Bullish On Inflation

Rising confidence data will inject some optimism into the region as the currently strong euro has created some problems for the region's economy. Although the European Central Bank has insisted that the euro is not yet at a dangerously high level, many worry that the strong currency could keep the bloc from meeting its inflation targets.

However, the euro lost some of its shine on Wednesday afternoon when the Fed's statement was more hawkish that most were expecting. Reuters reported that the US central bank removed its reference to a "tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months" as a risk to the bank's outlook.

Traders took the omission as a signal that the bank could taper its $85 billion per month bond buying plan sooner than expected. Now, many analysts see the Fed cutting down on its stimulus spending in early 2014. Following the statement, investors turned back to the dollar which sent the euro down 0.2 percent.

Posted-In: European Central Bank Federal ReserveNews Eurozone Commodities Forex Global Federal Reserve Pre-Market Outlook Markets Best of Benzinga

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  Around the Web, We're Loving... Learn to Use Trading Platforms Like Hedge Fund Traders do Rumsfeld: Denial of Benefits to Fallen Soldiers' Families 'Inexcusable' Come See How the Pro's Trade in this Exclusive Webinar Facebook, Baidu Lead Big Caps Beating Shutdown What Should You Know About AMZN? Most Popular IBM Authorizes $0.95 Dividend; Authorizes $15B In Additional Buybacks What is Apple's Tim Cook Hinting at for 2014? Facebook Shares Edge Higher After Hours Following Upgrade to Buy from BTIG's Greenfield Is a Beer Mega-Merger On Tap? Earnings Scheduled For October 30, 2013 Net Optics Announces Pending Acquisition by Ixia for $190M in Cash Related Articles (EWI + BROAD) Eurozone Sentiment Picks Up Brent Pushes Towards $110 Euro's Strength Could Provoke Action From ECB Brent Slips On Rising Libyan Exports Early Stages Of Eurozone Banking Union To Be Difficult Protests In Libya Boost Brent View the discussion thread. Partner Network #marketfy-ae-block { display: none; border: 2px solid #0a3f75; overflow: hidden; width: 300px; height: 125px; text-align: center; background-color: #45719E; position: relative; z-index: 1; } #marketfy-ae-block a { display: block; width: 300px; height: 125px; position: relative; z-index: 2; color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none; } #marketfy-ae-block-countdown-text { color: #f9fc99; padding: 0px 0 0 0; font-size: 19px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 19px; } #marketfy-ae-block-countdown-text-start { font-size: 12px; } #marketfy-ae-block-countdown { padding: 5px 0 5px 0; font-size: 26px; } #marketfy-ae-block-signup { padding: 5px 47px; } #marketfy-ae-block-signup:hover { background-color: #457a1a; } #marketfy-ae-block #marketfy-ae-block-logo { display: block; padding: 3px 0 0 0; margin: 0; } #marketfy-ae-block-logo { text-indent: -9999px; } #marketfy-ae-block-free { display: block; position: absolute; top: 7px; right: -23px; width: 80px; height: 16px; line-height: 16px; text-align: center; opacity: 1; -webkit-transform: rotate(45deg); -moz-transform: rotate(45deg); -ms-transform: rotate(45deg); transform: rotate(45deg); font-size: 13px; font-weight: normal; color: #333333; background-color: yellow; z-index: 500; text-shadow: 1px 1px #999999; } #marketfy-ae-block-arrow { position: relative; width: 60px; height: 60px; z-index: 10; margin: -80px 0 13px -21px; } #marketfy-ae-block-arrow img { height: 60px; width: auto; } Marketfy's International
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4 Big Stocks to Trade (or Not)

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It's time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.

>>5 Big Stocks to Trade for Big Gains

From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It's a concept that's known as "crowdsourcing," and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.

Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.

While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis. Today, we'll leverage the power of the crowd to take a look at some of the most active stocks on the market today.

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

These "most active" names are the most heavily-traded names on the market -- and often, uber-active names have some sort of a technical or fundamental catalyst driving investors' attention on shares. That's especially true now that earnings season is officially underway. And when there's a big catalyst, there's often a trading opportunity.

Without further ado, here's a look at today's stocks.

Sirius XM Radio

Nearest Resistance: $4.20

Nearest Support: $3.80

Catalyst: Earnings

>>5 Stocks Poised to Pop on Bullish Earnings

Shares of satellite radio stock Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) are trading more than 1.5% lower this afternoon, following the firm's mixed third-quarter earnings release this morning. SIRI added more than a half-million subscribers in the quarter, boosting its total subscriber count to 25.6 million listeners, a record high. Net income fell more or less in line with analysts' estimates, but 2014 guidance fell short, which is why shares are showing traders a modest decline.

From a technical standpoint, SIRI still looks bullish. Shares are pulling back down to trendline support at the 50-day moving average, a level that's acted as a floor for shares since the middle of the summer. For investors in search of a good entry opportunity, it doesn't get much better than this.

Symantec

Nearest Resistance: $24.25

Nearest Support: $21.50

Catalyst: Earnings

>>3 Tech Stocks Spiking on Big Volume

Symantec (SYMC) is another earnings-driven stock that's getting pushed lower in today's session on earnings news. The big difference is that this stock is down double-digits on the heels of its earnings call. Symantec actually beat EPS estimates by 6 cents, earning 50 cents per share for the quarter -- but poor guidance for the quarter ahead is the reason for SYMC's 11.6% selloff this afternoon.

The technical picture for SYMC doesn't look great, but it could certainly be worse. Shares are catching a bid at the $21.50 support level that shares bottomed at earlier this summer. Still, the uptrend that started in November is definitively broken right now, so technically, it makes sense to exit Symantec while most of your capital is still intact.

Lloyds Banking Group

Nearest Resistance: N/A

Nearest Support: $5

Catalyst: Technical Setup

>>4 Financial Stocks Rising on Big Volume

London-based Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) is up almost 3% this afternoon on big volume following some huge orders that hit the financial services giant's shares overnight. With earnings not due to be reported until next week, LYG is a technical setup pure and simple. And today's price action is shoving this stock to new highs above the key $5 level that just got taken out this month.

Making new highs is significant from an investor psychology standpoint because it means that everyone who has bought shares in the last year is sitting on gains. As a result, the "back to even" mentality is less of a concern than it would be for a name with a higher proportion of shareholders sitting on losses. Now's not a bad time to come into LYG, but I'd recommend keeping a tight stop in place.

Cemex

Nearest Resistance: $11

Nearest Support: $10.50

Catalyst: Earnings

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy Now

A 16th straight quarterly loss at Mexican cement giant Cemex (CX) isn't enough to scare investors away from shares this morning -- Cemex is up more than 3% this afternoon after the loss was reported to shareholders. The buying pressure is coming as a result of better than expected results from CX's U.S. business; Cemex is proof that when Wall Street isn't expecting much, "less worse" results can help buoy shares.

Technically, CX is in no-man's land right now, in between resistance at $11 and a strong support level at $10.50. Buyers should wait for $11 to get taken out before taking a position in this stock.

To see these stocks in action, check out the at Most-Active Stocks portfolio on Stockpickr.



-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Stocks in Breakout Territory With Big Volume



>>5 Dogs of the Dow to Stomp the Market



>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Monday, January 26, 2015

DeWaay settles with Finra over sales practices

finra, dewaay, settlement

Don DeWaay, founder of the now-defunct DeWaay Financial Network LLC, has settled a sales practice case with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc.

Mr. Dewaay agreed to pay a $7,500 fine and accepted a 10-day suspension over alleged misrepresentations to potential investors in a private placement of shares in his holding company, DFN Partners LLC.

DFN partners owned his broker-dealer, DeWaay Financial Network.

Finra alleged Mr. DeWaay was trying to sell some of his own shares in DFN Partners, and misrepresented his company to investors in a June 2009 conference call.

He claimed his firm had enjoyed a 47% surge in revenue at that point in 2009, and expected a “significant increase” for the full year — claims Finra said were unsubstantiated.

Mr. DeWaay closed his broker-dealer last November due to mounting legal problems from other private placements the firm sold.

A call today to his investment advisory, DeWaay Capital Management, was not immediately returned.

Mr. DeWaay did not admit to any wrongdoing in the settlement agreement, which Finra approved on Wednesday.

Whether the Finra penalty will impact Mr. DeWaay is unclear, since he dropped his securities license last January.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Stock Futures Rise as Summers Bows Out

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- U.S. stock futures were pointing to a higher open on Wall Street Monday as global markets strengthened on the decision by Larry Summers, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary and economic adviser to President Obama, to withdraw as a candidate to succeed Ben Bernanke as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Summers' move appears to leave Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen as the frontrunner for the position and fuels hopes for a protracted Fed stimulus program.

"As Yellen is perceived to be the most dovish candidate, we would expect the news to be positive for both bonds and equities on Monday morning," Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, commented in a note.

Deals developments were also boosting market sentiment.

Futures for the S&P 500 were rising 16.75 points, or 18.56 points above fair value, to 1,698.75 while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were gaining 154 points, or 179.94 points above fair value, to 15,465. Futures for the Nasdaq were adding 26.50 points, or 28.48 points above fair value, to 3,198. In company news, Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) was jumping more than 11.5% to $61 after the company announced that it will buy Boise (BZ)for $12.55 a share in cash or $1.995 billion in aggregate. Boise was soaring more than 27% to $12.69. Chrysler is planning to file documents for its initial public offering this week after majority owner Fiat and the health care trust that owns the rest of the automaker failed to agree a market price in a long-running dispute, The Financial Times reported. Sohu.com (SOHU) was tacking on more than 6.5% to $69.07 after Tencent announced that is taking a 36.5% stake in Sohu's Sogou search engine. Boeing (BA) was gaining 1.77% to $113.30. Top decision makers in South Korea's 8.3 trillion won ($7.64 billion) fighter jet tender have briefed the president on the outcome of an assessment process and told her that Boeing's F-15 Silent Eagle was the sole eligible bid, a source with knowledge of the process told Reuters. In other Boeing developments, the Dreamliner 787-9's maiden flight is expected to take place this week. A number of U.S. economic releases were scheduled for Monday. The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index showed a smaller-than-expected increase to 6.29 for September from 8.24 in August; an increase to 9.2 was expected, according to a Thomson Reuters poll of economists. It was the lowest level since May but remained in expansionary territory for the fourth consecutive month. At 9:15 a.m., the Federal Reserve is forecast to report that industrial production rose 0.4% in August after being flat in July. The report is expected to say also that capacity utilization rose to 77.8% from 77.6%. Obama plans to deliver a speech at 11:40 a.m. in the White House's Rose Garden to mark the fifth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The DAX in Germany was climbing by 1.08% and the FTSE 100 was advancing by 0.69%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng closed ahead by 1.47%. Japanese equity markets were closed for a public holiday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury was surging by 22/32, diluting the yield to 2.805%. The dollar was falling 0.38% to $81.15 according to the U.S. dollar index. October crude oil futures were falling by $1.42 to $106.79 a barrel while December gold futures were gaining $7.20 to $1,315.80 an ounce. Follow @atwtse -- Written by Andrea Tse in New York >To contact the writer of this article, click here: Andrea Tse.>

4 Stocks to Trade for Breakouts on Unusual Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy in September

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

Alon USA Energy

Alon USA Energy (ALJ) is a refiner and marketer of petroleum products operating mainly in the South Central, Southwestern and Western regions of the U.S. This stock closed up 4.7% at $12.95 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Volume: 1.27 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 574,814

Volume % Change: 122%

>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out

From a technical perspective, ALJ jumped sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $12.14 with strong upside volume. This stock had been downtrending badly for the last four months with shares sliding lower from its high of $18.72 to its recent low of $10.81. During that downtrend, shares of ALJ have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, the downside volatility for ALJ looks over and the stock has now started to uptrend. This move is starting to push shares of ALJ within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if ALJ manages to take out its 50-day moving average of $13.03 to Tuesday's high of $13.05 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ALJ as long as it's trending above some key near-term support levels at $12.14 to $12 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 574,814 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then ALJ will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $13.84 to $14.12. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give ALJ a chance to tag its 200-day moving average at $16.03.

Qiwi

Qiwi (QIWI), along with its subsidiaries, provides payment services in Russia and the CIS. This stock closed up 5.6% at $31.48 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Volume: 350,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 208,428

Volume % Change: 90%

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

From a technical perspective, QIWI bounced sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $29.66 with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last three months, with shares moving higher from its low of $14.31 to its all-time high of $36. During that uptrend, shares of QIWI have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of QIWI within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if QIWI manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $32 to $32.50 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in QIWI as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $29.66 or $28 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that this near or above 208,428 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then QIWI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at its all-time high of $36. Any high-volume move above $36 will then give QIWI a chance to tag $40 to $42.

AFC Enterprises

AFC Enterprises (AFCE) develops, operates and franchises quick-service restaurants under the trade names Popeyes Chicken & Biscuits and Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen. This stock closed up 1.2% at $41.45 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Volume: 389,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 172,433

Volume % Change: 138%

>>3 Huge Stocks to Trade (or Not)

From a technical perspective, AFCE trended up modestly higher here right above some near-term support at $40.50 with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last four months with shares moving higher from its low of $31.13 to its recent high of $43. During that uptrend, shares of AFCE have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of AFCE within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if AFCE manages to take out its 52-week high at $43 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AFCE as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $41 or above $40.50 and then once it sustains a move or close above its 52-week high at $43 with volume that hits near or above 172,433 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then AFCE will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $47 to $50.

Constant Contact

Constant Contact (CTCT) provides on-demand engagement marketing tools designed for small businesses, associations and non-profits primarily in the U.S. This stock closed up 2.5% to $19.62 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Volume: 519,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 274,362

Volume % Change: 115%

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

From a technical perspective, CTCT bounced higher here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $19.48 with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of CTCT within range of triggering another major breakout trade. That trade will hit if CTCT manages to take out some more resistance at $19.80 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CTCT as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $19 or above $18.50 and then once it sustains a move or close above $19.80 with volume that hits near or above 274,362 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CTCT will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $21.22. Any high-volume move above that level will then put $24 to $26 into range for shares of CTCT.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Triggering Breakouts



>>5 Commodity Stocks to Trade for Gains



>>5 Sin Stocks Ready for Dividend Boosts

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Saturday, January 24, 2015

Morgan Stanley Gets OK to Buy Rest of Smith Barney

Morgan Stanley (MS) has the government’s thumbs-up to buy the final 35% stake in its Morgan Stanley Smith Barney joint venture from Citigroup, the company said early Friday.

“This is a historic day for Morgan Stanley,” said Chairman and CEO James P. Gorman, in a press release. “Immediately upon closing, we expect to start seeing the benefits of 100% ownership—including an expanded deposit base, unique syndication and distribution capabilities and enhanced opportunities for both our wealth management and institutional clients.”  

Morgan Stanley says it will pay $4.7 billion in cash for this last slice of the joint venture and expects the deal to close by June 28.

The joint venture between Morgan Stanley and Smith Barney came together in 2009, when Morgan Stanley acquired a 51% share (for $2.7 billion) and Citigroup (C) 49%. At the time, the combined entity—Morgan Stanley Smith Barney—had some 18,500 advisors.

In September, the two parties clashed over the valuation of the deal, which was put at $13.5 billion, much lower that Citi’s estimated value of $22 billion. It included about 16,930 employee advisors as of June 30, 2012.

After an agreement was reached, Morgan Stanley bought an additional 14% stake in the venture and changed its name to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, which had about 16,300 advisors as of March 31.

(As part of its second-quarter ’13 earnings, Morgan Stanley will record a negative capital adjustment of about $200 million, net of tax, which reflects the difference between the purchase price and its carrying value.)

“Today, the power of Morgan Stanley’s platform—a premier investment bank and one of the world’s pre-eminent wealth and asset management franchises—is clearer than ever before,” explained Gorman (right), in a statement. “With this milestone behind us, we have added momentum to carry out our full plan to achieve higher shareholder returns.”  

Rival broker-dealers have been recruiting Morgan Stanley advisors at a steady pace. But while the number of Morgan Stanley reps departing in 2011 and 2012 shot up due to IT-related issues, “It’s significantly better and stable in 2013,” said Rick Peterson, a Houston-based recruiter, in an interview. 

Plus, Peterson says, the wirehouse just seems to be having its fair share of departures, “and if these reps are replaced by those with bigger [asset and production] numbers, they really don’t mind.”

Last week, for instance, Morgan Stanley said it recruited three advisors from rival wirehouse firms with a total of $3.7 million in yearly fees and commissions. The broker-dealer says that attrition among the top two quintiles of advisors remains "very low."

---

See where Morgan Stanley placed in 12 Best & Worst Broker-Dealers: Q1 Earnings, 2013 on AdvisorOne.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Tuesday's Top Upgrades (and Downgrades)

This series, brought to you by Yahoo! Finance, looks at which upgrades and downgrades make sense, and which ones investors should act on. Today, our headlines include a downgrade for natural-foods producer Annie's (NYSE: BNNY  ) , but upgrades for game maker Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS  ) and precious-metals harvester Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) . Let's dive right in.

Annie's gets orphaned
First up, Annie's suffered a downgrade at the hands of JPMorgan this morning, and the stock is down more than 4% in response.

No great surprise here. Priced at nearly 65 times earnings, Annie's shares were pretty obviously overvalued, even with analysts projecting growth rates north of 20% for the shares over the next five years. Free cash flow at the company remains weak -- about $0.51 per $1 of reported earnings. And to top it all off, Annie's announced last week that insider shareholders are looking to unload 2.5 million shares of the company, flooding the market with about 15% of the total share count.

That's almost guaranteed to put selling pressure on a stock too highly priced to withstand it. Accordingly, Annie's shares are likely to fall, and JP's downgrade is justified.

Hasbro hits "play"
Less obvious is the situation with Hasbro. The company reported a 16% decline in net profits yesterday and a 6% slip in revenue -- yet Hasbro shares rose 3%, and are up again on the back of an upgrade from Needham & Co. today.

Needham is keying in on unexpected strength in the company's Games and Girls segments, and modest growth in Preschool. Meanwhile, Needham predicts that the company's main area of weakness, Boys, will rebound quickly as Hasbro brings in new revenues from its Star Wars partnership with Disney.

And Needham may be right. Sure, at 19 times earnings, Hasbro doesn't look like much of a value candidate right now. But remember that the stock pays a nice, fat 3.4% dividend yield on top of its 10% projected earnings growth rate. Plus, the Force is strong with this one -- free cash flow at the company amounted to $516 million over the past 12 months, or nearly 60% more than what Hasbro reported as its net income.

I calculate about a 12 times price-to-free cash flow ratio on the stock. And between the growth rate and the dividend, I think that's plenty cheap enough to justify a buy rating. Needham is right to upgrade.

Silver lining? Must mean there's a cloud
Last but not least, we come to Silver Wheaton, which is getting a nice boost to its stock price from an upgrade to "outperform" at Macquarie. Here, though, I'm going to finally call a strike on Wall Street's judgment.

Priced at just a little over 14 times earnings, paying a 2.3% dividend, and projected to grow earnings at an even 20% annually over the next five years, all systems seem "go" for an investment in Silver Wheaton. Problem is, this company's "profits" are not what they seem. Free cash flow doesn't come close to matching reported net income of $572 million. To the contrary, over the past 12 months, this company has burned $1.8 billion in cash.

Granted, most of this cash-burn took place in a single quarter -- last quarter. But even if you throw that one out as an outlier, and evaluate Silver Wheaton on its performance over the preceding five years, the company averaged barely $116 million in positive free cash flow annually over that period, or barely 20% of what it's reporting for the past year's net income.

Long story short, given every benefit of the doubt I can scrape together for it, I see Silver Wheaton selling for about 70 times its average annual cash haul, which is too high a price to pay even if the company does succeed in generating 20% growth. On the other hand, if Silver Wheaton should burn cash as it did last quarter, the stock looks even less attractive to me. I think Macquarie's making a bad call on this one. Silver Wheaton is no "outperformer."

Indeed, the opposite seems more accurate.

Fool contributor Rich Smith has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Hasbro and Walt Disney. 

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Will Time Warner Stock Fly As Superman Invades China?

Is there a superhero more quintessentially American than Superman? The hero that came to stand for "truth, justice, and the American way"? Probably not, yet Chinese filmgoers love him anyway.

Henry Cavill plays an American icon in Man of Steel. Sources: IGN and Warner Bros.

Man of Steel, a retelling of the character's origin but with a darker twist, claimed nearly 80% of box office receipts, or $5.86 million, on its opening day in China. The film entered this weekend having already topped $35 million in ticket sales, according to data cited by The Hollywood Reporter.

Worldwide, Box Office Mojo pegs Man of Steel's haul at $422.1 million through Friday, with $188 million of that from overseas territories.

For Time Warner (NYSE: TWX  ) stock investors, a big reception around the globe increases the odds that Man of Steel can be for DC what 2008's Iron Man was for Marvel: a stepping stone to a wider franchise. That Chinese moviegoers are already interested is a welcome sign.

Yet DC has a long way to go if it's to catch Marvel and studio parent Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS  ) . Iron Man 3 set a new single-day record during its Chinese debut, grossing $21.1 for during its launch.

Still, any progress is worth noting, since Chinese consumers have been slower to embrace DC films. Take The Dark Knight Rises, which grossed $52.8 million in China. Impressive, right? Sure, but U.K. viewers accounted for $90.3 million in ticket sales.

By contrast, Marvel's The Avengers earned $84.1 million in Chinese theaters, versus $80.4 million in the U.K. China already likes what Disney and Marvel have to offer, while the censors are still getting to know Warner and DC.

What 1 billion people can do for Superman and his friends
Man of Steel is a good start. But Warner's next steps are critical. China's annual movie market tops more than $2 billion despite efforts to keep a tight lid on features. Regulators allow for only 20 U.S. film imports each year, with another 14 premium screenings of 3-D or IMAX (NYSE: IMAX  ) films.

Studios, meanwhile, get only 25% of the box-office haul from Chinese screenings. Still a big number for a tentpole film -- already more than $8 million for Man of Steel, if THR's figures are to be believed  -- but also a far cry from the 50-50 theater split common to other territories around the world.

Warner's best bet for maximizing the opportunity may be to bear-hug IMAX, which saw a 58% boost in revenue from showings in Greater China in the first quarter. The company was serving 113 theaters in the region as of March 31 -- up from 73 the year prior -- with 117 more still to be completed.

We've seen it work before. Christopher Nolan used IMAX cameras to great effect in all three of his Batman films, and that franchise resulted in $2.4 billion in worldwide grosses for DC and Warner.

Whether or not IMAX offers the best path to profit, Warner needs a consistent strategy for exploiting China's appetite for American pop culture. Investors expect nothing less -- and rightfully so.

Now it's your turn to weigh in. Have you seen Man of Steel yet? If so, does the film make you more or less likely to buy Time Warner stock now? Leave your comments in the box below.

Still looking for good investment ideas? You don't need to become an expert on China. Profiting from our increasingly global economy can be as easy as investing in your own backyard. The Motley Fool's free report "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World" shows you how. Click here to get your free copy before it's gone.

With News of Berkshire Stake, Is Starz Still Attractive?

Pay-TV cable operator Starz (NASDAQ: STRZA  ) , a spinoff from media conglomerate Liberty Media (NASDAQ: LMCA  ) , has done nothing but climb since its market debut less than a year ago. This past month, the company reported its first-quarter earnings for 2013, and while the numbers came up short of analyst expectations, there was plenty of encouraging news for the long-term viability of the company. Just this past week, it was announced that Berkshire Hathaway had amassed a nearly 5% position in the company, gained as a result of the firm's sizable Liberty Media stake. The question now is, does the stock still have room to run, or is this growth story coming to an end?

Earnings recap
Missing analyst estimates, revenue dipped about 1% for the company to $399.3 million. But with both its namesake Starz network, as well as Encore, the company now has 56.7 million paying subscribers -- by far the largest of any premium cable operator. One of Starz's new series, Da Vinci's Demons, debuted to a record high for opening-weekend numbers, and has been renewed for a second season.

Still, the company's expenses and lowered sales kept the bottom line down. Operating income shrank 13% to $104.9 million, from $120 million in the year-ago quarter. On a per-share basis, the company earned $0.47, down from $0.65 one year ago. Analysts were expecting $0.49.

Management is sticking to its strategy of cautiously allocating capital toward original productions. Given the success of its recent series, and newly green-lit projects on the horizon, this remains a compelling strategy that should enhance shareholder value over the long term.

The future and valuation
After a more than 60% rise since its IPO, Starz is currently trading at 13 times one-year forward earnings. Direct comps are difficult, since Starz is the only independently traded premium-TV play, but we can look at others, owned by larger media companies, for guidance.

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX  ) owns HBO. While it is smaller than Starz by subscriber count, the network has a near-flawless record in its recent original productions. Titles such as Game of Thrones, Girls, and True Blood have been tremendous successes in attracting and retaining subscribers. Time Warner trades at 14.12 times forward earnings, but includes many other factors -- from film studio Warner Brothers to theme parks. Showtime parent CBS (NYSE: CBS  ) trades at just over 15 times earnings. All three networks have attractive economics as they have pushed original content that, though costly up front, creates better margins over time and saves the company from some difficult negotiations with other content providers. Recently, the company ended its contract with both Netflix and Disney, startling some investors and analysts but ultimately proving a wise decision as it freed up cash to put toward in-house production.

As mentioned, Berkshire's holding, which was not an open-market purchase but part of the spinoff from Liberty, is still intriguing as the conglomerate could have sold the stock upon receipt, but instead opted to keep it. All in all, Starz looks to remain fairly valued and an attractive long-term pick. I would not worry too much about the short-term dip on the financial statements.

Can Netflix fend off its burgeoning competition, and will its international growth aspirations really pay off? These are must-know issues for investors, which is why The Motley Fool has released a premium report on Netflix. Inside, you'll learn about the key opportunities and risks facing the company, as well as reasons to buy or sell the stock. The report includes a full year of updates to cover critical new developments, so make sure to click here and claim a copy today.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Fear Poll: Fed/QE, Ebola and Technicals Top Worry List

Stocks may be in the process of putting in a bottom, but with the VIX hitting 31.06 yesterday at the same time VIX futures were setting new volume records, investor fear and anxiety is as high as it has been since the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis.

As the VIX and More Fear Poll results reflect, the current situation is particularly difficult for investors to grapple with because there is so much disagreement about what the biggest worry is and how some of these fears may be connected.

[Related -Stock Market Volatility: An Update]

In the chart below, I have summarized the almost 400 votes from some 35 countries, with the U.S. accounting for 65% of all respondents.

It is worth noting that the responses appear to be somewhat headline driven, as yesterday Ebola topped the list of worries, only to be supplanted by concerns about the impact of the Fed ending quantitative easing and in so doing removing the safety net that has helped keep liquidity high, volatility low and investors more confident. I also find it particularly interesting that "market technical factors (breach of support, end of trend, weak internals, etc.)" are so important to a broad range of investors, which raises the question of whether technicals are more of a cause or effect in the recent downturn.

[Related -Semiconductors Get Slammed As Investors Scramble To Protect Profits]

Looking at global economic weakness, slightly more investors expressed concern about the U.S. economy than that of the euro zone, with concerns about the Chinese economy a distant third.

In these types of polls, I am always interested to see how U.S. respondents differ from those outside of the U.S. In the current market environment, U.S. respondents tend to place more emphasis on the weak U.S. economy and the Ebola virus, while paying less attention to currency issues and China. Some of the detailed results certainly have a whiff of provincialism, yet it remains to be seen whether the global or Americentric perspective does a better job of honing in on what to focus on – a subject I will delve into at a later date.

For those who might be interested in the results of prior VIX and More Fear Poll data, the links below should be a helpful reference.

Last but not least, many thanks to everyone who participated in this poll, which I intend to periodically reprise as market conditions warrant.

[source(s): VIX and More]

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Apple Payments Entry May Imperil American Express Rates, Says Credit Suisse

Apple‘s (AAPL) potential move into the market for electronic payments at retail point of sale may already be upsetting the, uh, apple cart for payment processors, according to a note today from Credit Suisse‘s Moshe Orenbuch, who follows shares of American Express (AXP) and who has an Underperform rating on that stock. 

Writes Orenbuch, at the outset, an Apple entry will probably be just a “ripple” rather than a “wave” for traditional payments firms. 

However, “Longer-term, a successful Apple payment system roll-out would in our view most likely disrupt the interchange revenue stream earned by card issuing banks and 3-party providers such as AXP, as merchants clamor for lower fees given the rise of fraud combating technologies.”

Notes Orenbuch, Apple’s negotiating lower fees on transactions:

Reports suggest that five of the six credit card issuers in our coverage universe (the largest issuers of V, MA and AXP) have agreed to lower discount rates by 15-25 bps (and likely incur other costs as well) to be included in AAPL’s digital wallet. While AAPL may assume some of the increased fraud risk due to “Card Not Present,” we believe the fear of being “left out” of a payment system via the iPhone and iWatch is a more compelling driver to lower rates.

He thinks that could set up a situation where American Express may have to negotiate with other parties:

Although an agreement with AAPL may be a “special situation” given its size and influence, we believe more merchants and merchant aggregators may begin demanding concessions by AXP on its discount rate. We would note that 15 bps of discount rate pressure on the US business would represent $0.60 per share in 2015 (more than 10% of 2015 EPS), unless offset by lowering of rewards.

American Express shares today are down 53 cents, or 0.6%, at $89.08. Apple stock is off 17 cents at $98.80.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Stop Obsessing Over the Next Dow Correction

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) marked its eighth record close of 2014, capping a week in which the Dow jumped more than 200 points. Yet, even though the stock market has helped many investors recover all their losses from the financial crisis and then some, many people have missed out on the most recent gains. Fears of a long-awaited correction for the Dow Jones Industrials have undoubtedly contributed to relatively low stock-ownership rates among the general population, and even experienced investors have been reluctant to commit capital after nearly three years without a 10% drop for the Dow. Yet, if you always wait for a Dow correction to invest, either in the whole Dow or in component stocks like Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) and Disney  (NYSE: DIS  ) , then you might well find yourself investing at higher levels than you would have if you'd simply gone ahead and bought shares at regular intervals along the way.

Missing out
As you can see, the move upward for the Dow Jones Industrials has been almost unbroken by even minor setbacks:

^DJI Chart

Dow Jones Industrials data by YCharts.

It's extremely unusual for the Dow to go this long without what most investors consider to be an official correction. Typically, the Dow takes a much bumpier course in its general trend higher, with 10% corrections coming roughly once every year. If the Dow can hold onto its gains until September, it will mark the third anniversary of the end of the last correction of that magnitude.

Given just how long this bullish run has lasted, it's no surprise that some nervous investors have been holding back on buying stocks for a long time now. In particular, since the Dow started hitting new all-time record highs more than a year ago, many investors have tried to time the market by waiting for a correction.

Source: Boeing.

In the process, though, these Dow investors have left themselves in a bind. With the Dow at 14,000 just more than a year ago, these investors looked to buy at 12,600 or less. Yet now, even if they get the 10% drop from current levels that they're hoping for, it'll only bring the Dow down to 15,200 -- more than 20% above their target price, and nearly 10% higher than they'd have paid if they had just bought into the stock market at that time.

For certain individual Dow components, the wait has been even more costly. Boeing has risen at a 40% annual clip during the past two years, with a major correction coming only earlier this year at prices well above where Boeing stock traded at the beginning of 2013. Boeing has overcome huge concerns about its 787 Dreamliner aircraft and its ability to overcome initial problems, but expecting a correction would have left you out of the stock for some of its most promising growth years.

Similarly, Disney has climbed higher, gaining 35% to 40% since mid-2012, with even fewer hiccups along the way. Success in its growing stable of movie franchises has spread throughout the entertainment giant's operations, and Disney has kept working hard to solidify its leadership of the industry. The company's consistent growth has made pullbacks few and far between, leaving many would-be shareholders on the sidelines.

Don't wait
There's no question that a Dow correction will come at some point. But unless you have a huge lump sum to invest right now, you shouldn't let fear of a correction keep you from starting a regular investing plan. By investing a bit at a time, you might buy a few shares at the top of the market, but you'll also prevent yourself from missing out on future moves higher for the Dow Jones Industrials, and stocks like Boeing and Disney.

Your cable company is scared, but you can get rich
You know cable's going away. But do you know how to profit? There's $2.2 trillion out there to be had. Currently, cable grabs a big piece of it. That won't last. And when cable falters, three companies are poised to benefit. Click here for their names.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Debunking the Yahoo Tracking Stock Myth

Alibaba has now filed its F-1 document which is the precursor to an IPO probably later this summer.

Several talking heads on television and journalists in articles have declared that the fact that the Alibaba IPO is happening soon means that the honeymoon period for Yahoo Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer is over.  Now, they say, Marissa and Yahoo's core business will have to stand on their own two feet.

There is a line of thought that Yahoo has merely been a tracking stock for Alibaba over the past 2 years. Now, with the IPO on the horizon, these people say, any investor who previously bought Yahoo stock just to own a piece of Alibaba will now sell that stock in order to free up capital to buy the newly public Alibaba stock directly.

So, let's address this issue with some data.  Although every case is different, a prior situation where a big tech company was seen as a tracking stock for another entity in which it held a large stake was EMC EMC back a few years when it owned VMWare VMWare.  It started trading as a separate company on August 14, 2007.  Prior to that, VMWare was owned entirely by EMC.

Marissa Mayer Marissa Mayer (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

If the pundits' thesis is correct, you should have seen selling in EMC shares leading up to the VMWare IPO as institutional investors looked to trade out of EMC stock so they could be at the ready to get their orders in to buy VMWare stock.

Let's go to the videotape.

It turns out that in the 3 months prior to the VMWare IPO, EMC's stock went up – and not just a little.  EMC's stock increase 15.6% in those 3 months.  During that same period, the Nasdaq composite was down 0.7%.

Perhaps once the VMWare stock started trading the IPO aftermarket, EMC's stock took a dive.  Not so.  In the three months after the VMWare IPO in 2007, EMC's stock increased another 12.4%.  And the Nasdaq again lagged, increasing only 3.2% over the same period.  However, VMware did do better than either.  Its stock popped 58% in the 3 months after the IPO.

So, EMC's stock certainly didn't see a trading out phenomenon, either in anticipation of the VMware IPO or afterwards.

How about a more recent example: the Facebook IPO from 2012.  In early February 2012, Facebook filed its S-1 to hold its IPO – one that was hotly anticipated by the market.  According to the view that you have to sell one stock in order to buy another way of thinking, you would expect to see Google's stock price flag in the weeks leading up to the Facebook IPO.  However, that didn't happen.

From early February 2012 until about mid-June – which was well after the mid-May Facebook IPO – Google's stock traded in line with the Nasdaq index.  It wasn't higher or lower.

Then, starting in mid-June, a month after Facebook had been trading (and trading badly), Google did experience a big upswing in pricing relative to both Facebook and Nasdaq.  It appears that people did pass judgment on Facebook's business that it wasn't quite as revolutionary as everyone first thought.  They seemed to then gravitate back to Google as the leader in the mobile and desktop ad space.  But Google never suffered in anticipation of the Facebook IPO.

The bottom line is that investors will judge Yahoo on its own merits before and after the Alibaba IPO.  And, contrary to a lot of commentary, Alibaba's valuation will continue to swing Yahoo's stock price quite a bit post-IPO.  That's because Yahoo will continue to own 14% of Alibaba.  If Alibaba's stock trades up to $260 billion in market cap as some sell-side analysts have suggested, Yahoo's stake will be worth $22.6 billion net of any future taxes Yahoo might have to pay – that's two-thirds of the current Yahoo valuation of $34 billion.

So you can expect to see Alibaba's valuation swing a big part of Yahoo's stock for the forseeable future even after the big IPO date comes.

[Long YHOO]

Finra sees uptick in arbitration cases filed in first quarter

Finra, arbitration, Puerto Rico, bond suits, Bloomberg News

The number of arbitration cases brought before the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. is on pace to exceed the total from last year, according to statistics compiled by the broker-dealer regulator.

Finra said that during the first three months of the year, 1,011 arbitration cases have been filed. That compares to 919 in the first quarter of 2013 and 1,183 in the first quarter of 2012. The total number of cases filed in 2013 was 3,714, while 4,299 cases were filed in 2012.

One likely factor in the uptick this year is the hundreds of cases that Finra has received from investors who have been burned by the collapse in Puerto Rico municipal bond funds, according to Bryan Ward, a partner at Sutherland Asbill & Brennan.

Last week, Finra announced that it had expanded its pool of arbitrators to handle the Puerto Rico caseload. The number of Puerto Rico complaints could rise and push the total number of arbitration claims higher, depending on how plaintiffs fare.

“We'll have to see how the Puerto Rico bond cases play out,” Mr. Ward said. “A few big wins can be a strong marketing tool for getting more clients.”

The number of arbitration cases closed is running behind the previous two years. In the first quarter of this year, 946 cases closed, compared to a total of 4,498 and 4,877 closing in 2013 and 2012, respectively.

The proportion of arbitration cases that resulted in damages being awarded to clients this year is running ahead of the previous two years. Finra said that 50% of cases that were decided in the first quarter — 55 of 109 — resulted in damage awards, compared to 42% for all of 2013 and 45% for all of 2012.

Over the last couple of years, Finra has eased rules surrounding the makeup of the three-adjudicator arbitration panels. The default option now is an all-public panel. Alternatively, claimants can choose two public arbitrators and one arbitrator with a financial industry background.

In the first quarter of the year, all-public arbitration panels awarded damages to customers in 48% of cases they heard, while a split panel awarded damages in 45% of the cases before them. That compares to 43% for all-public panels and 44% for split panels in all of 2013 and 49% and 33%, respectively, in all of 2012.

In the pool of 6,375 Finra arbitrators, 3,547 are public and 2,828 are non-public. Nearly every brokerage contract with clients includes a mandatory arbitration clause that sends customer disputes to Finra, the industry-funded regulator.

The leading claim in arbitration cases this year has been breach of fiduciary duty, followed by negligence, breach of contract and failure to supervise. Breach of fiduciary duty also was the leading claim in 2013 and 2012.

Th! is trend consistently shows up even though Finra enforces the suitability standard that applies to brokers when they sell investment products and not the fiduciary duty that governs investment advisers' interactions with clients. Attorneys usually try to broaden their cases in Finra arbitration.

“There's typically not a fiduciary duty in those [broker] relationships, but it's alleged as a claim in customer arbitration,” Mr. Ward said.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Should I Buy FB Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

Facebook Logo Twitter Logo LinkedIn Logo Google Plus Logo RSS Logo Tom Taulli Popular Posts: FB Stock – Why Facebook Could Soar Another 18%Can Apple Payments Cure AAPL Stock Growth Woes?FB Stock: 4 Things to Watch For in the Facebook Earnings Report Recent Posts: Should I Buy FB Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons SOCL Could Get Unfriendly For Investors FB Stock: Who Will Be the Facebook of 2024? View All Posts

Facebook (FB) is celebrating its 10th birthday today, just days after putting out another solid earnings report that shot FB stock to a new high.

Facebook185 Should I Buy FB Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons"It's been an amazing journey so far, for me personally and for all of us at the company," said CEO Mark Zuckerberg on the Facebook earnings call.

Of course, it was a difficult journey, too. He and Facebook had to fend off competitors like Friendster, MySpace and even Google (GOOG). He also had to make the transition from the desktop to mobile. But through it all, Zuckerberg has proven adaptable, brilliant and fierce.

The only question now is — can he and FB stock keep up their winning ways? We look at the pros and cons of the stock to find out.

FB Stock Pros

Massive Platform: About 1.23 billion people visit FB every month, with about 750 million of those visiting on a daily basis. Facebook in turn is able to collect huge troves of information about these users, which it translates into targeted marketing. FB stock has in turn benefited from strong pricing power for Facebook ads. Still, the real story for Facebook is mobile. By end the of 2013, mobile monthly active users came to a whopping 945 million (+39% on a year-over-year basis), and mobile daily active users had improved by 49% YOY to 556 million.

Beyond the News Feed: Facebook plans to build more apps that provide unique solutions for users without being embedded in the core Facebook app. One example is Messenger, which has been growing at breakneck speed — it was the most downloaded app for Apple's (AAPL) iOS and Google's Android in December. FB also is adding key assets via acquisitions, the most important of which (so far) appears to be Instagram. With it, Facebook has been able to benefit from the huge popularity of photo sharing and also has been able to better engage younger users.

Lastly, it appears Facebook is building a mobile ad network that would give FB a piece of mobile ads from third-party apps — a potentially large revenue opportunity. Facebook already has the components to make this happen, such a software development kit for mobile apps (via its Parse division), critical ad targeting technology (such as with a desktop-based ad network) and Facebook logins for third-party apps.

Monetization: FB stock couldn’t take off until Facebook figured out how to make money off of its users. And Zuckerberg has figured it out — especially in mobile. In the latest quarter, about 53% of ad revenues came from mobile sources, totaling about $1.25 billion. But unlike many other hot Internet operators, such as Twitter (TWTR), FB has been able to remain profitable. Also, 2013 free cash flow was $2.8 billion and Facebook has $11.4 billion in short-term investments.

A key to Facebook's monetization success has been the company's aggressive investments in ad technologies. For example, by leveraging third-party data sources — such as from Datalogix, Acxiom (ACXM) and Alliance Data Systems (ADS) — it has been able to provide analytics on the performance of ad campaigns. On the Q4 earnings call, Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg said the average return on News Feed ads was an incredible 8x.

FB Stock Cons

Limits: About a third of the world's population has access to the Internet, and many of those who are connected only have low-bandwidth connections. Ergo, it’ll be tough for FB to maintain the hefty ramp in its user growth. Facebook is trying to address the problem with the launch of Internet.org. The site’s mission is to create partnerships with Internet service providers and telecom carriers to build the infrastructure necessary to make Internet access (and thus Facebook use) more ubiquitous. However, so far, the details are vague, and it’s too early to measure any serious traction.

The MySpace Syndrome: The key reason for the downfall of MySpace was the flood of annoying ads, which weighed heavily on the user experience. That gave Facebook an edge. However, FB might be doing the same thing that did in MySpace. It’s clear that, as Facebook ramps up monetization, the ads are starting to pile up, and that could be giving a leg up to the likes of SnapChat, WhatsApp and Line. Meanwhile, studies are increasingly showing that the demographics trend isn’t looking good for Facebook on the young end. Could that be an early indicator of its future decline?

Flubs: Facebook has had a dry spell with new products. Offerings like Home for Android and Graph Search have failed to get much interest from interest. Poke, a knock-off of SnapChat, was a total flop. When it comes to product development, Facebook seems to be more focused on reacting to the competition, such as when Facebook introduced features such as trending topics and hashtags in response to Twitter. Long-term, Facebook must be more creative and launch breakout products, or it risks being vulnerable to the erosion of its user base.

Verdict

Zuckerberg has clearly shown that he is a standout leader capable of at least identifying the need for a middle ground of solid product and monetization.

Facebook also is at the center of a massive shift where ad dollars are moving from traditional sources to online platforms. The company has much latent potential with properties like Instagram, which have minimal ads, and FB stock also could get a boost from a mobile ad network and auto-play video ads.

Still, Wall Street appears well ahead of this. FB stock currently trades at 38 times next year’s earnings, which is well ahead of other tech giants such as Google. In other words, growth is plenty expected … and if it doesn’t keep coming, watch out.

So should you buy FB stock? No — for now, much of the growth has already been factored into the stock. If you do plan on buying in, wait for a quick pullback.

More on Facebook’s 10th Birthday 20 Social Media Networks That Facebook Has Outlived Who Will Be the Facebook of 2024? Facebook Users Are Getting Older … and That’s a Good Thing

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPO Playbook. He is also the author of High-Profit IPO Strategies, All About Commodities and All About Short Selling. Follow him on Twitter at @ttaulli. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Stocks Jump But Watch Out for the Disappearing Equity Risk Premium

Stocks rebounded from yesterday’s rout today as 3M (MMM), Visa (V), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Allergan (AGN) and Mosaic (MOS) helped lead the major indexes higher.

Bloomberg

The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 1,838.88, its largest gain since Dec. 18, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% to 16,373.86, snapping a four day losing streak.

Stocks were given a boost by better-than-forecast retail sales in December, which rekindled hope that the economy wouldn’t experience a growth fear similar to years past. Citigroup’s Peter D’Antonio explains:

The way we're looking at this report, any positive number on core retail sales should be seen as strong. Although markets tend to get keyed up about December retail sales (and the holiday shopping season), the real action actually occurred by November this year. The previous three months' core readings were up 1.6% (not annualized), implying a very high starting point for holiday sales.

Yet despite the numbers, stocks look far less attractive than they did a year ago, when stocks were cheap and bonds expensive and that meant investors should favor the former over the latter. Those days are gone, says Societe Generale’s Alain Bokobza and team. They write:

The process of normalisation (convergence of ERP with long-term average ERP) of the equity risk premium that began around two years ago is approaching an important inflexion point for the US equity market. Due to the rapid rise in US government bond yield, our proprietary equity risk premium model indicates that the US equity risk premium is on the verge of moving below its long-term average. Historically, bonds are considered to be cheap relative to equities once equity risk premiums move below their long-term averages.

Citigroup’s Tobias Levkovich believes we are in a secular bull market but warns of a bumpy ride. He writes:

One has to remember that there can be a secular run with substantive bumps along the way. No one questions the 1982-2000 equity bull market but there were some awful moments in that 18-year period including the stock market crash of 1987 and the sharp pullback in 1990 as well as in 1998. Thus, when lead indicators of volatility emerge, it is wise to pay attention and see them as buying opportunities to be expected and pounced upon…

A pick up in volatility should be anticipated as earnings become the main driver now and interest rates may become a headwind. Stocks outpaced underlying earnings by a factor of five in 2013 and it is likely that such gains are not going to be repeated. Indeed, the shape of the yield curve is quite effective as a two-year lead on market volatility and thus one should expect more choppiness in 2014 and probably 2015 than the fairly smooth experience of the past year. In this context, considering a 5%-10% pullback seems not only plausible but fairly rational.

Shares of 3M rose 2% to $137.41 today as a Nomura report mentioned it in a positive light, while Visa gained 1.7% to $222.65 after JPMorgan (JPM) said it had sold some shares but would remain a larger holder of its stock. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals advanced 12% to $300.32 after it said Eylea sales rose, Allergan jumped 5.9% to $121.22 after won a patent case that would protect one of its drugs, and Mosaic climbed 4.1% to $48.03.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

How to Tell Your Family You Can't Make It Home for the Holidays

Getty Images Many people are willing to sacrifice almost anything to be with their family during the holidays. After all, there's no place like home for the holidays, right? But the truth is, sometimes it isn't worth the financial sacrifice to make it home. If you just can't justify the costs of traveling home this holiday season, you're not alone (although it might feel like you are). Perhaps you're surrounded by friends and family who pull out all the stops for the holidays and expect you to do the same. Or maybe you've already ensured everyone that you'll be there, and you're worried that your change of plans might land you on everyone's naughty list. Two years ago, Johnny and I were faced with the fact that we wouldn't be making it to our parents' homes for Thanksgiving or Christmas. Johnny had just started a new job, and his company strongly discouraged him from leaving for the holidays. We wanted to make the responsible financial decision and keep Johnny in good standing at his new job. And so we had to tell our families that we wouldn't be home for the holidays. But how? Tell them sooner rather than later: Even though you might be dreading telling your family that you won't be coming home, delaying the inevitable won't help the situation. The closer to the holiday season, the more likely that your family will have made plans around your arrival. They'll appreciate a heads-up. And who knows -- maybe the extra time will give your loved ones a chance to put a holiday box in the mail for you (Please, Mom?). Break the news as personally as possible: Two years ago, Johnny's family was expecting us for Christmas. When debating how to tell them, we realized the most personal approach would be best. So we video-chatted with his family one Sunday to break the news. Because we took the time to video-chat, they were able to see our genuine disappointment, and much to our relief, they immediately understood. If we'd told them by text or email, our explanation might have seemed less sincere. Find ways to let your family know you care: Despite being by ourselves, Johnny and I still wanted a way to connect with his family at Christmas. We had a tight budget, so we headed to a dollar store and bought everyone funny (OK, maybe just weird) gag gifts. We sent other gifts to our Secret Santas, but the gag gifts helped everyone know we were thinking of them. They all opened the box on Christmas morning, and everyone had a good laugh over video-chat.

Closing Bell: Tech Earnings Send Stocks Higher; Microsoft Leads Dow

APTOPIX Wall Street (Specialist Peter Giacchi, center, calls out prices during the IPO of Sprague Resources on the floor of theRichard Drew/AP NEW YORK -- Strong third-quarter results from technology companies drove investors into stocks on Friday, giving the market its third straight weekly gain. After reporting results that topped expectations, Microsoft (MSFT) rose 6 percent and Amazon.com rose 9 percent. The Dow (^DJI) rose 61 points, or 0.4 percent, to close at 15,570. The Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) rose 14 points, or 0.4 percent, to 3,943, the highest it's been in 13 years. And the Standard & Poor's 500 (^GPSC) rose 7 points, 0.4 percent, to 1,759, another record high. The gains were broad. All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 rose, led by telecommunications with an increase of 1 percent. Most companies that have reported third-quarter earnings are beating financial analysts' estimates. Even so, earnings for companies in the S&P 500 index are expected to grow just 4.5 percent over the same period a year ago, according to S&P Capital IQ, a research firm. At the start of the year, earnings were expected to rise at more than twice that pace. Some market watchers are calling for caution, saying that a significant part of the profit growth has come from cutting expenses, not increasing revenue, as the global economy remains sluggish. "The question is: What is the outlook for earnings?" Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities, said. "There is only so much you can do with cost-cutting." Major U.S. stock indexes have soared this year. The S&P 500 is up 23 percent, the Nasdaq composite 31 percent. In addition to higher earnings, investors have been encouraged by continued economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Many had expected the Fed to pull back from its stimulus before the end of year, but now think the central bank will hold off until next year, possibly until March. The Fed is buying $85 billion worth of U.S. government and other bonds with the aim of keeping interest rates low. The stimulus program has helped investors brush aside a few warning signs about the market. Stocks look fully priced by some measures comparing them to earnings, for instance. And revenue growth is slowing. Revenue for S&P 500 companies is expected to grow just 2 percent for all of 2013, half the growth of the year before. Economic news Friday suggested they may struggle to increase sales for a while yet. The U.S. government that reported orders for long-lasting factory goods, excluding aircraft and military-related products, fell 1.1 percent. Also, the University of Michigan said its index of U.S. consumer sentiment fell in October as concern grew that the partial government shutdown this month and the political fight over the nation's borrowing limit would slow growth. Three stocks rose for every two that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Microsoft beat analysts' forecasts for revenue and earnings, giving hope to investors that its shift to devices and services from PC-based software will be successful. Microsoft rose $2.01, or 6 percent, to $35.73 after reporting a 17 percent increase in third quarter net income late Thursday. Amazon.com (AMZN) was up $31.18, or 9 percent, to $363 as investors continue to shrug off its losses. The online retailer reported late Thursday that its revenue surged 24 percent to $13.8 billion in the third quarter, more than financial analysts had expected. Zynga (ZNGA) rose 19 cents, or 5 percent, to $3.73 after the Internet gaming company reported it had cut its losses in the third quarter. The maker of "Farmville" and "Mafia Wars" is trying to appeal more to users of smartphones and tablet computers under a new CEO. In bond trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a benchmark for mortgages and many other kinds of loans, edged down to 2.51 percent from 2.52 percent. The yield has fallen sharply since Sept. 5, when it hit 3 percent, and is the lowest it's been in three months.

Friday, January 9, 2015

UTX Ups Its Payout: 6 Companies Increasing Dividends

Google Plus Logo RSS Logo Marc Bastow Popular Posts: 3 Small-Cap Stocks With Serious YieldsBuy These 3 Stocks for a Monthly PaycheckPhillips Pumps Out More Income: 7 Companies Increasing Dividends Recent Posts: UTX Ups Its Payout: 6 Companies Increasing Dividends HPQ: Meg Whitman Is Spinning a Hopeful Tale Buy These 3 Stocks for a Monthly Paycheck View All Posts

Companies Increasing DividendsIt’s been a topsy-turvy week for the markets, with the government shutdown and impending debt ceiling crises — as well as news about a possible short-term solution — whipsawing Wall Street on a daily basis.

Amid the news, a generally quiet week on the dividend front did manage to include at least one big name, Dow Jones component United Technology (UTX).

A total of six companies made it onto our Companies Increasing Dividends list for the week. (Note: All yields are as of Oct. 11):

Midstream oil and gas MLP Genesis Energy (GEL) raised its quarterly distribution 2.5% to 52.25 cents per share, payable Nov. 14 to unitholders of record as of Nov. 1.
GEL Dividend Yield: 4.25%

Hotel and travel REIT Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT) raised its quarterly dividend 2.1% to 48 cents per share, payable Nov. 22 to shareholders of record as of Oct. 25.
HPT Dividend Yield: 6.71%

Biopharma stock Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) raised its quarterly dividend 20% to 30 cents per share, payable Oct. 30 to shareholders of record as of Oct. 22.
QCOR Dividend Yield: 2%

Specialty chemicals manufacturer RPM International (RPM) raised its quarterly dividend 6.7% to 24 cents per share, payable Oct. 31 to shareholders of record Oct. 21. The increase is the 40th consecutive year of annual dividend increases for RPM.
RPM Dividend Yield: 2.57%

Select Income REIT (SIR), a real estate investment trust that owns single-tenant, net-leased properties, raised its quarterly dividend 4.5% to 46 cents per share, payable Nov. 20 to shareholders of record as of Oct. 24.
SIR Dividend Yield: 7.06%

Industrial conglomerate United Technologies (UTX) raised its dividend 10% to 58.9 cents per share, payable Dec. 10 to shareholders of record as of Nov. 15.
UTX Dividend Yield: 2.2%

Marc Bastow is an Assistant Editor at InvestorPlace.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. For more payout winners, see previous weeks' lists of Companies Increasing Dividends.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Investment limit raised for retail investors in REC bonds

This follows the tweaking of the definition of retail investors by the Ministry of Finance, Department of Revenue (Central Board of Direct Taxes) on March 6, the day the bonds opened for subscription.

The GoI notification said that any individual investor investing up to Rs 5 lakh shall be treated as retail investor and any individual investor investing more than Rs 5 lakh shall be treated as High Networth Individual.

The raising of the limit would probably help the chances of investors being allotted more bonds in proportion to their investment in case of very heavy subscription. The company had proposed to raise Rs 1,500 crore through the public issue of tax-free secured redeemable non-convertible bonds of face value of Rs 1,000 each, in the nature of debentures, during FY 2011-12.

It had the option to retain oversubscription of up to an aggregate Rs 3,000 crore. The REC tax-free bond Issue will close on March 12 and the minimum application amount is Rs 5,000. The retail coupon rate is 8.13 per cent for 10-year bond and 8.32 per cent for 15-year bond. The bonds are proposed to be listed on the BSE and there is no lock-in period.

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Tesla Motors Is the New Automotive Standard

For decades the auto industry has centered around Detroit. General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) , Ford (NYSE: F  ) , and Chrysler are located there and the innovation and design that drivers love was developed there.

Today, it's an upstart in California that has the auto industry rethinking everything it's doing. Maybe the internal combustion engine isn't the future? Maybe you can own your distribution network? And maybe if you make a product that people love, they'll pay enough to make you a handsome profit?

Maybe Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) is the next standard in the auto industry?

Turning Detroit on its head
The first big impact Tesla is having on Detroit is proving you can make money selling electric vehicles. We know that the Nissan LEAF and Chevy Volt weren't financial successes, and upstarts like Fisker are in serious financial trouble. Tesla has shown the auto industry that consumers are willing to buy electric vehicles in droves if you include the right features.

What Tesla has done better than any other company was focus on performance and range. The Model S can go up to 265 miles on a single charge, about five times the distance of the Volt and LEAF. Ford's Focus Electric is improving range but still only goes about 80 miles. This gives Tesla a huge lead on the competition.

If you doubted the quality or performance of the Model S then you may want to reconsider after it was names Motor Trend's "Car of the Year" for 2013.

Performance on the bottom line
Tesla's surprise $11.2 million profit in the first quarter is the major reason the stock has skyrocketed in the past few weeks. This incredible performance, despite making just 20,000 vehicles per year, is what makes Tesla a standard in the auto industry. CEO Elon Musk is expecting a 25% gross margin once production ramps up, and that would be almost unheard of in the auto industry.

Below I've compiled the gross and net margins of some of Tesla's biggest competitors and none get close to 25%.

 

Revenue Growth

Gross Margin

Net Margin

Tesla Motors 

83.0% (q/q)

17.2%

2.0%

Ford Auto 

3.4%

11.4%

4.5%

General Motors Auto 

(2.6%)

10.3%

3.2%

BMW Group Auto 

(1.6%)

9.0% (EBIT)

7.5%

Source: Company earnings releases. Note: Net margin is for full company, which includes finance units.

Fueling the future of the auto industry
Tesla isn't just powering its own line of EVs, it's powering a new line of EVs from Toyota (NYSE: TM  ) and Mercedes Benz as well. The Rav4 EV is in production and the Mercedes Benz B-Class EV is in development. If these two companies need to rely on an upstart like Tesla for electric power trains it shows just how far it is ahead of the competition.

Tesla is the new standard of the auto industry because of its technology, performance, and superior financials. The question is: Can Detroit catch up?

How high can Tesla Motors go?
Near-faultless execution has led Tesla Motors to the brink of success, but the road ahead remains a hard one. Despite progress, a looming question remains: Will Tesla be able to fend off its big-name competitors? The Motley Fool answers this question and more in our most in-depth Tesla research available for smart investors like you. Thousands have already claimed their own premium ticker coverage, and you can gain instant access to your own by clicking here now.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Coach Inc to Acquire Stuart Weitzman (COH)

On Tuesday morning, Coach Inc (COH) announced that it has entered into an agreement with Sycamore Partners to acquire women’s luxury footwear company Stuart Weitzman Holdings LLC.

As part of the deal, Coach will pay $530 million, while Sycamore Partners will make a payment of $44 million for the company. Coach expects this deal to be accretive to its EPS.

Victor Luis, CEO of Coach commented: “Stuart Weitzman is a leading American luxury designer footwear brand with a solid growth trajectory and further significant domestic and international development potential. Importantly, the size, scope and vibrancy of the Stuart Weitzman brand, along with the continuity of its management team, allows for a seamless transition to Coach ownership, as we continue to focus on Coach's brand transformation. Over the medium term, we look forward to advancing the Stuart Weitzman brand's global development, especially by leveraging Coach's international infrastructure and expertise in handbags and accessories. In addition, we look forward to benefiting from the Stuart Weitzman team's expertise in footwear development where they're proven leaders in fashion and fit. Our strong balance sheet provides the flexibility to take advantage of this opportunity while re-investing in our core business and continuing to maintain our dividend at current levels.”

COH Dividend Snapshot

As of market close on January 5, 2015

COH dividend yield annual payout payout ratio dividend growth

Click here to see the complete history of COH dividends.

Coach shares were up 54 cents, or 1.47%, during pre-market trading Tuesday.

Celgene: European Decision Not Best Case Scenario, Not Worst Case Either

Celgene (CELG) today announced that a European regulatory committee had issued a positive opinion on its cancer drug Revlimid. Bernstein’s Geoffrey Porges and Wen Shi explain the significance:

Boston Globe via Getty Images

This morning, the European Committee for Medicinal Products (CHMP) announced a positive opinion recommending the expansion of the Revlimid EU label to include front-line usage in multiple myeloma. The new indication reads “Revlimid is indicated for the continuous treatment of adult patients with previously untreated multiple myeloma who are not eligible for transplant.” The positive CHMP opinion is an important step as Celgene looks to significantly expand Revlimid’s market potential in the EU. This is consistent with expectations but is not the best case scenario for Celgene since it excludes the transplant eligible population.  However, the label is not confined to the elderly or any other population subgroup, and therefore is better than the worst case scenario.

Given the market’s reaction, that sounds about right. Shares of Celgene have gained 1.1% to $117.74 at 2:28 p.m. today, just about in line with the gains in other big biotech companies. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) has risen 1% to $428.20, Amgen (AMGN) has advanced 1.1% to $170.34 and Biogen Idec (BIIB) is up 1.5% at $359.11.

Monday, January 5, 2015

Takata: Evidence Doesn't Support National Air Bag Recall

Japan Takata Recalls Shizuo Kambayashi/APChild seats, manufactured by Takata, displayed at a Toyota showroom in Tokyo. DETROIT -- Takata Corp. defied a U.S. safety agency's demand for a nationwide recall of driver's side air bags, setting the stage for possible legal action by the government and leaving some drivers to wonder about the safety of their cars. In a Tuesday letter to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration obtained by The Associated Press, Takata said its own data and testing support limiting the recall to high-humidity areas, such as along the Gulf Coast. A Takata official repeated those claims Wednesday morning at a hearing before a House subcommittee. The air bag's inflators can explode with too much force, spewing shrapnel into the passenger compartment. At least five deaths and dozens of injuries have been linked to the problem worldwide. Under pressure from lawmakers, the U.S. safety agency on Nov. 26 demanded that Takata and a number of automakers broaden a recall of driver's side air bags to all 50 states. At Wednesday's hearing before a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee, an executive from Honda (HMC) said the automaker would expand its recall nationwide. Honda is one of Takata's biggest customers. So far automakers have recalled about 14 million vehicles worldwide for Takata air bag problems, including 8 million in the U.S. A nationwide recall would add 8 million vehicles to existing recalls, Takata said. Up until now, cars were only being recalled in high-humidity areas in Florida, Hawaii, along the Gulf Coast and in some U.S. territories. Takata has maintained that prolonged exposure to airborne moisture can cause the inflator propellant to burn faster than designed, causing it to explode with too much force. A number of committee members expressed concern that the limited nature of the recall was confusing to consumers outside of the current recall zones. Rep. Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, the panel's senior Democrat, said she's received letters from constituents "who are literally afraid to drive their cars." But Hiroshi Shimizu, senior vice president of global quality assurance at Takata, maintained the company's defiant stance, telling lawmakers at the hearing that the available data and scientific evidence on the air bags "doesn't support" a nationwide recall. Takata also contends that NHTSA only has authority to seek recalls from auto manufacturers and makers of replacement parts, not original parts suppliers. NHTSA disagrees. Late Tuesday, NHTSA called Takata's decision "disappointing" and said it will review the response to determine the agency's next steps. A week ago, the agency threatened civil fines and legal action if Takata didn't declare the driver's air bag inflators defective and agree to the recall. It can impose fines of up to $35 million. David Friedman, deputy NHTSA administrator, is also scheduled to appear at Wednesday's hearing. National Recall Sought In calling for a national recall, NHTSA pointed to inflator ruptures that injured drivers in California and North Carolina -- both outside the recall zones. Takata said in its letter that it has tested 1,057 driver and passenger inflators taken from locations outside the high-humidity zone, and none of them has ruptured. The company said it will expand production of replacement inflators for the current recalls and will expand the recalls if warranted. The dispute between the government and Takata left automakers caught in the middle. Besides Honda, NHTSA has told other affected automakers -- Ford (F), Chrysler (FCAU), Mazda and BMW -- that they need to recall the driver's side inflators soon. BMW has said its recalls are national already, while Ford and Chrysler wouldn't comment. Wednesday's hearing is the second in Congress regarding the Takata air bag matter. Earlier this year, Congress held a number of highly publicized hearings into General Motors' (GM) handling of a recall of cars with defective ignition switches that are now linked to deaths. Investigations into that issue are ongoing. "I'm sorry to say that it has been a bad year for auto safety," said Fred Upton, R-Michigan, at the opening of the hearing. -. Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. More from The Associated Press
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