Guggenheim Securities telecommunications analyst Shing Yin returns this morning with another in a series of iPhone-related analyses.
Wednesday, he reflected upon whether Apple (AAPL) had avoided making a 4G iPhone so as to keep Verizon Communications (VZ) in a place of virtual servitude.
Today, Yin writes that subsidy costs will no doubt rise for AT&T (T), Verizon, and Sprint-Nextel (S) during this year as they sell more iPhones. The iPhone will increase in absolute sales regardless of its market share on a percentage basis.
And in fact, Yin sees the iPhone taking even more share this year, writing, “In our view, there seems little reason to believe at this point that the iPhone�s share of the smartphone market should decline materially going forward.”
“In fact, we believe the release of an LTE iPhone could lead to greater share during 2012 and beyond.”
Yin estimates AT&T, Verizon and Sprint sold 30 million iPhone units last year. He expects they may sell 38 million to 40 million units this year. That would add up to a subsidy increase of 10.5% for AT&T, 27.9% for Verizon, and 22.5% for Sprint, assuming Sprint and Verizon sell the lion’s share of the increase.
That would be a $9.7 billion subsidy expense for AT&T, $10.3 billion for Verizon, and $4.6 billion for Sprint, assuming average subsidies of $400 per iPhone and $250 per regular smartphone.
Yin has a Neutral rating on shares of T, VZ, and S.
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