Sunday, November 25, 2012

Netflix: An Investment in Facebook?

By Roger Nachman

Recent rumors have suggested that Netflix (NFLX) may be working with Facebook, instead of Facebook taking on Netflix.

An analyst at Pacific Crest Securities, Andy Hargreaves said,

Facebook integration could boost global subscriber growth. We believe Netflix is working with Facebook to tightly integrate Netflix into Facebook's platform. This could help increase time spent in Facebook and drive incremental Netflix subscribers domestically and in new international markets.

Hargreaves goes on to say,

We believe that, on top of its existing momentum, the company is working with Facebook to launch deeper integration of Netflix into the Facebook platform. The first stages of these efforts are likely to launch within the next few months, and we believe they could drive incremental subscriber growth domestically while helping to accelerate Netflix's international expansion.

This is a far cry from earlier in the week when it looked as if Facebook was going to take on Netflix by adding movies to its platform. On Monday Time Warner (TWX) announced it would stream "The Dark Knight" on Facebook, which many saw as a blow to Netflix.

If Facebook and Netflix do actually work together, it would be beneficial for both companies, as more people spend time on Facebook, and Netflix is able to have an audience of 600 million users for its platform. Netflix currently has over 20 million subscribers now, and obviously some of those overlap, but this could be a huge increase in subscribers if the deal is successful.

Pacific Crest continues to have a Buy rating and a $270 price target on shares, far higher than where they are today.

If you believe Pacific Crest knows more than they are letting on, buying shares of Netflix at these levels could be a very rewarding trade.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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