October Retail Sales Data: The Highlights

Reminder: we like to look at the Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor.

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +4.5% year-over-year sales improvement in October 2010. This represents a deceleration versus the +4.8% growth in September 2010.

While year-over-year growth is decelerating against tougher compares, the 2-year growth rate again dramatically improved in October 2010 relative to the prior month. Most categories reported stronger 2-year growth rates in October 2010 versus September 2010.

It’s worth noting that July 2009 represented the "bottom" a year ago.

The most compelling category specific storylines in October 2010 were:

Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores reported a worse 2-year growth rate in October 2010 than September 2010. Other than Health & Personal Care Stores (flattish), this was the only category that reported a decline in its 2-year growth rate in October 2010 versus September 2010.

Building Material & Garden Equipment reported a dramatic +12.2% "comp" in October 2010. This compares to +8.2% in September 2010. This anomalous growth rate appears to mimic a similarly odd +13.6% "comp" growth rate that the category experienced in April 2010.

Non-Store Retailers continue to report strong year-over-year results. The category’s 2-year growth rate increased to +17.0% in October 2010 versus +13.6% in September 2010.

Monthly “Big Picture – What’s Happening at the Mall” Year-Over-Year Results in Calendar 2010

January 2010	+2.8% (+1.3% 2-year)
February 2010	+3.7% (+3.4% 2-year)
March 2010	+5.4% (+3.2% 2-year)
April 2010	+4.5% (+1.5% 2-year)
May 2010	+4.1% (+0.8% 2-year)
June 2010	+4.6% (+0.8% 2-year)
July 2010	+4.6% (+0.6% 2-year)
August 2010	+4.9% (+2.4% 2-year)
September 2010	+4.8% (+4.3% 2-year)
October 2010	+4.5% (+5.3% 2-year)

Disclosure: No position